Things that used to work…
The steamers yesterday only produced two winners and zero emails asking for it to be a regular feature, so I guess that's dead in the water.
I might revisit as a potential laying system!
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Today I want to tell you about something I just noticed.
I've been logging beaten favourites since 2019, a year when they made a profit at Betfair SP of 8% ROI.
What followed was five years of small losses until this year when they are in profit again.
When I were a a lad betting beaten favourites was a common strategy, to be honest I don't know if it was a good strategy because I wasn't a profitable bettor back in the day.
And I don't know why it would be profitable this year after 5 years of losses, but I thought I'd have a look at some data.
So I'm looking for factors that have increased the profit over the last five years and then I'll have a look at this year to see if they would have improved this year so far.
I looked at race code (Flat,AW,NH) there was no significant difference, so I looked at just Flat and AW as we are in the season, still.
Next up handicaps or non handicaps, non handicaps are better but I stuck with both for the next step.
Next up I found all trainers that made a profit with their beaten favourites over the past five years, there were 71 of them!
This would have made a great system if the same group were profitable this year, but they weren't 😕
Next up I looked at jockeys who were profitable on beaten favourites over the last five years and coincidentally there were again 71.
Again that group were not profitable this year.
And that's where I've got so far looking at beaten favourites.
If you have suggestions for other angles to research, hit reply and let me know and I'll investigate.
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Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
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