Your York Dante cheat sheet
The Dante Festival starts tomorrow and our Matt Russell has done a deep dive into the York data to find the angles that actually matter.
Here are the highlights.
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The Duke of York Stakes — four filters, ten from ten
Over the last ten runnings of this race, every single winner has been a 4 or 5 year old. Every winner had run once or not at all this season. None had run more than twice at the track. And all came from stalls 1 to 9. Apply all four filters and you're typically left with three to six runners — from which all ten winners have come.
The Dante Stakes — what to avoid
Any horse that ran last at Epsom, Leopardstown, or Newcastle All-Weather has failed to win this race in ten years. Combined, those tracks account for a quarter of all runners. Also worth knowing: just one outright favourite has won in the last decade. The value is rarely at the top of the market.
Andrew Balding — the stat of the festival
Balding has been hugely profitable at York over the last five years, particularly in non-handicap races (6 from 14 for nearly 48 points profit). But there's a specific micro system buried in the data that Matt is running as a standalone angle this year — Balding runners at York who last ran at a particular track have a phenomenal record. That one's in the full article.
And one to avoid: Balding runners in handicaps at York who last ran at Goodwood. Zero wins from 21 runners.
Draw bias on the straight course
In five furlong races, stall 17 and beyond has zero wins in our data. Low draws dominate. Worth checking before you back anything in the sprints.
The full article — with the complete trainer and jockey tables, the specific micro system, and the best jockey/trainer/distance combos — is live on the site now for Platinum members.
If you want the full picture before racing starts tomorrow, upgrade here: https://oncourseprofits.com/upgrade
All the best
Darren Power
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