Aintree favourites

In this month's mag Sean Trivass shared his winning profiles for this week's Aintree meeting.

https://www.oncourseprofits.com/the-statman-the-grand-national-meeting/

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For today we have the Boodles Anniversary Novices Hurdle and the Aintree Bowl Steeple Chase.

In the Bowl second favourite Impaire Et Passe is knocked out based on this stat

  • No horse who was pulled up on their previous start has won this in the 20 year period covered (100%).

Going through the whole profile we are left with the short priced favourite, Jango Baie, as the only horse that passed all the filters.

In the Novices Hurdle the market again looks to have it right!

The standout 100% rules from the last 19 runnings — every single winner has hit all of these:

  • Finished in the first nine last time out
  • Carried an official rating of 130 or higher
  • Raced within the last 90 days — but not within the last 15
  • Had at least two runs this season

Applying those to today's field eliminates the five outsiders immediately (Ammes, Aqua Bleu, Indian River, Lord and Wolf Rayet — all priced 25/1 or bigger, failing the 95% rule that 18 of 19 winners came at 16/1 or shorter).

That leaves five runners. Running the 89% filters — last 60 days, first five in the betting, first five last time out — knocks out Mange Tout, whose last run was 66 days ago at Leopardstown.

Based on the trends we can expect the winner to be one of these

  • Selma De Vary (9/4) — 4th in the Triumph Hurdle, 27 days ago 
  • Maestro Conti (11/4) — 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle, 27 days ago 
  • Minella Study (10/3) — 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle, 27 days ago 
  • Winston Junior (5/1) — 2nd in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, 29 days ago 

Willie Mullins fields the favourite Selma De Vary and he has a 50% strike rate in this race with three wins from six runners.

So it looks like I'm tipping two favourites for you today based on Sean's profiles.

1:45 Aintree Selma De Vary

2:55 Aintree Jango Baie

Good luck with all your bets today.

All the best

Darren Power

PS This month's sponsor is Smart Value Tips which has averaged over £800 profit per month since commencement 7 months ago (£10 stakes BSP) - Click Here to Add Them to Your Portfolio

Betting all my adult life, firstly at the greyhound track where my dad was a trainer more recently horses.
A fan of systems based betting which I've been practicing and writing about since 2004 which was the last time I had a real job.

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