Christmas Crackers
King George
The King George betting has a slightly strange setup at the moment in as much as the favourite isn’t actually entered in the race. It does suggest that Spillane’s Tower will be supplemented though and given his effort in the John Durkan, it’s no real surprise that he’s favourite. Given the quality that was in that race, it is slightly hard to get away from him, but that was likely a tough enough season opener.
The same can be said for Grey Dawning, but in more convincing terms. The Betfair Chase was a complete slog and he was legless in the closing stages. Dan Skelton is saying that he’s surprised with the way that he’s come out of that, but we have seen it many times that after a gruelling effort like that, there isn’t any coming back for a while. If he is able to produce another effort like that just over a month later, I’ll be staggered.
At the prices, I think Banbridge is really interesting here. I’ve had to take a bit of a look at the long range forecast, and it looks optimistic for good ground horses. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of rain around over Christmas and that will really help Banbridge’s chances here. He was a no-show on his reappearance but was coming with a late run to trouble Energumene in the Hilly Way before unseating at the last. I’m becoming more impressed with how he’s performing at two miles, considering it’s not his optimum trip. You’d have to say two and a half miles is his optimum, at least for now. He’s only had one go at three miles and that was as a novice hurdler, so I think it’s about time he deserves another go.
He stays so well over two and a half that he’s definitely worth a try at this, especially given that he’s shown on multiple occasions that he’s Grade 1 class over shorter. If the forecast is right and they do roll the dice, I think the standout 10/1 with bet365 is a good bet.
Recommended Bet
Back Banbridge @ 10/1
Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase
This is an interesting race with the current top 3 in the market all being novices from last season. I am slightly unsure why we haven’t seen Gaelic Warrior before now and we know that he can throw in a bad race every now and again, so I don’t think the 11/8 for him is a good price – he’s boom or bust.
Found A Fifty would definitely be more effective right-handed given his jumping tendencies and his beatings of Pinkerton and Solness so far this season need massively improving upon to be winning this.
Like his stablemate, I am also a little concerned that we haven’t seen Il Etait Temps yet this campaign either. By all accounts he has had a little issue and so I think he’s worth opposing as well.
Dinoblue sets a decent standard here, being last years winner and getting 7lb from the geldings. She’s been a model of consistency over fences and her form in open company actually makes her the one to beat here (from the horses that are going to run) in my eyes. She improved loads for her reappearance last year when she beat Fil For and she can do the same here following her second in the Hilly Way. Even if they’re at their best, I think she has the beating of Found A Fifty and Il Etait Temps. If Gaelic Warrior doesn’t bring his A-game, Dinoblue is there to pounce.
Recommended Bet
Back Dinoblue @ 8/1
Stayers Hurdle
This is probably one of the most obvious bets you could have at Cheltenham right now, but that’s because the odds are only going to go one way. Teahupoo won’t run again before the festival, but even if he does, it’ll be over 3 miles and he’ll win. Either way, he won’t be 5/2 on the day.
He is simply the best stayer over hurdles. Strong Leader is second in the betting and yes, he’s unexposed at three miles, but the last couple of races he’s won have been weak. A relatively short beating to Monmiral isn’t good enough to be winning a Stayers Hurdle. He won’t lay a glove on Teahupoo.
There was no way Teahupoo could beat Lossiemouth in the Hatton’s Grace, from flag fall they went a crawl and she was always going to out-sprint him. Even so, that form may still prove to be the best on offer this season! I just don’t see anything that’s going to touch him at Cheltenham and he won’t be close to 5/2 on the day, to be honest at this point in time, I’ll be surprised if he’s odds against.
Recommended Bet
Back Teahupoo @ 5/2
Christmas Pointers
There is loads of racing to get stuck into over the Christmas period and it’s easy to get bogged down. So I’ve got a few names for you to keep an eye out for over the next couple of weeks.
I will be very keen to chance Colonel Harry again if he returns to two and a half miles. He was fancied ante post for the Coral Gold Cup, but it was quite obvious during the race that three miles isn’t for him. He was too keen and his jumping was too quick (which I get does seem a little strange), but he jumped himself to the lead and made himself more keen by jumping past horses. Having travelled very well into the straight, he weakened tamely and a return to shorter will be on the cards. He could be seen at Cheltenham on New Years Day.
Firefox is a really good jumper of a fence and he didn’t get the best of rides in the Drinmore. I expect to see him back over shorter to utilise his jumping. Surprisingly, he’s yet to win a graded race at all, but if he turns up over two miles next, I’d find it tough to oppose him.
The Challow Hurdle is going to be a hot race this year, but there is also the Formby at Aintree on Boxing Day over a shorter distance. I’d be surprised if all of The New Lion, Potters Charm and Regent’s Stroll run in the former. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the latter ran at Aintree and I’d really fancy him for it – what he did at Newbury, despite making a hideous mistake at the second last, was brilliant.
We might see an almighty clash in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton with the potential of Constitution Hill returning against Lossiemouth and if not him, it’ll be Sir Gino. This would probably be the biggest no bet race of the year for me. Can Constitution Hill come back? Possibly. Lossiemouth and Sir Gino are both exceptional racehorses. I don’t know who’ll win, but I’ll love watching it all the same.
Lastly, I have two fillies to look out for. The first is Jubilee Alpha for Paul Nicholls. She was a good bumper horse last season, winning one before finishing second in the Grade 2 at Aintree. She was out of the screen following a bad jump at the last in a Listed race on her hurdling debut, but she absolutely flew home to be beaten less than two lengths. She’s got ability and will be winning.
The second is Karamoja for Willie Mullins. She was incredibly strong in the market on her stable debut, despite Patrick Mullins being on another Mullins horse in this amateur riders race. Karamoja pulled like a train and could never win running like she did, so the fact she stuck at it for third was commendable. She’ll be winning over shorter.
Merry Christmas and happy punting!
Alex Peperell
