Funny old world
So yesterday we talked about betting the outsider in three horse races and how over the long term it is a profitable strategy, albeit a tiny ROI.
The bet we had came about because of a system selection from a proven system that happened to be forecast as the outsider in a three horse race and at the time I emailed it was the outsider.
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Come race time the selection was favourite and the outsider was Jaramillo.
Jaramillo, the outsider of three, won by 12 lengths.
So the outsider of three won, but I didn't!
There’s decent racing for fans of both codes this afternoon. The Scottish Grand National meeting gets underway at Ayr and Newbury hosts its first flat card of the new season.
Here's the Victor Value preview of the top races at Ayr, if you would like the Victor Value selections for Ayr and Newbury you can sign up here https://victorvalue.uk
Ayr
Ayr’s two-day Scottish Grand National meeting gets underway this afternoon. The meeting promises thrilling action and a vibrant atmosphere, reaffirming its place as a must-attend fixture for Scottish racing fans. This year’s meeting boasts a record £500,000 in prize money on Saturday alone. All enclosures are reportedly sold out for Saturday, which shows just how popular the big race remains.
2:40 – Handicap Hurdle – 3m ½ f
Ace Of Spades, trained by Dan Skelton, looked in need of further when a 1½ lengths 4th of 10 on handicap debut at Kelso (2m 5f) last time. He’s effective on good ground and today’s 3m distance can see him go close off what looks a handy mark.
Histrionic got off the mark over hurdles when beating two rivals at Chepstow 26 days ago. Need to improve again to defy a mark of 121 on handicap debut but he’s capable of doing so.
Imperial Merlin ended a losing run that dated back 23 months when winning a handicap hurdle at Haydock 23 days ago. He was a C&D winner at this meeting two years ago, handles good ground and should be in the mix.
Belvedere Blast can be hard ride and race lazily as he’s shown on his last two starts. On the plus side he’s on a good mark and his yard has hit form. He needs a well run race and if he gets it is an each-way contender.
3:15 – Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½f
I had a hunch that Dan Skelton had a good record on the Friday of Ayr’s Scottish Grand National and digging into stats I found that he indeed did – 13 winners from 42 runners 31% +29.17, 22 places with an A/E=1.51. He was 3-9 last year although 0-5 in 2023. Most of his profit also came 12 months ago.
Skelton saddles Riskintheground who was nearest at the finish when 5¼ lengths 5th of 9 at Newbury last time. He shaped at Newbury like was coming to the boil for a spring/summer campaign (4 of his 5 career wins have between March & June) and he’s very effective on quick ground. Yard has won this race four times since 2017 which is another posotive to his already good chance.
Persian Time has pulled up on his last two starts but he should appreciate the return to better ground. He’s now 4lb below his last winning mark and the first time cheekpieces make him of interest.
Crebilly didn’t seem to stay when down the field in the Ultima Handicap Chase (3m 1f) at Cheltenham last month. Needs jump with more fluency to take advantage of what looks a handy mark.
4:25 – Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5 ½f
Dan Skelton runs Nurse Susan who ran better than her 11th of 24 in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham suggests. That was her first run for 14 months, so she was entitled to need it. The cheekpieces go on for the first time and she’s on competitive mark if building on last time.
Florida Dreams, a course winner, found things happening to quickly when a 9¾ lengths 5th of 18 to in the Morebattle Hurdle (2m) at Kelso last time. Should stay this far, is ground versatile and now 2lb below his last winning mark
Phantomofthepoints, a winner at Wincanton over further three starts back, has been blow par on his last two starts but the tongue tie goes on for the first time and Callum Pritchard takes off a handy 5lb. If he bounces back to his best has each way claims.
Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
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