How to find winners
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A nice winner yesterday and well done if you got on board with that.
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I think yesterday's excercise demostrated how you should use the research we share in the magazine.
To recap the https://www.oncourseprofits.com/mudslingers-revisited/ shared a list of trainers who have an above average strike rate for runners on Heavy & Soft to Heavy going.
We used the list of runners to run through some checks and rejected three of the four runners and had a bet on one that looked like it could win.
Not that it was nailed on but just that it could win and add that to the stats Matt researched it seemed a worthwhile bet and it duly obliged.
As mentioned yesterday I bet at 5.2 the BSP was 4.3.
So a couple of readers have asked how I narrowed the list down to the one bet and frankly it wasn't rocket science.
The first two selections in the 3:00 were priced at 20/1 and 66/1 in a Novices Hurdle and were against an odds on favourite which did win. I rejected them just based on those facts.
The 4:33 was a Handicap Hurdle. I like Handicaps, if the handicapper has done their job properly then all horses should be capable of winning a handicap. I know that's a simplistic view but that's the one I take.
So my first thought was that either of the horses highlighted could win the 4:33.
Next step I simply went to Geegeez.co.uk and looked at their Instant Expert screen.
That told me that King John Oliver the shorter of the two selections had never run on Heavy and that Kel Du Large had run and won on Heavy.
At 5.2 in a 7 runner handicap, with the good form on heavy going and the trainers record on heavy that seemed like a good bet.
So, to recap, I had my long list of possibles, only four yesterday, and I looked for any of the possibles that could win and had proven themselves capable on the going.
We have two meetings on the turf today both on heavy ground and the list of possibles has 17 horses named.
I've narrowed that 17 down to
2:15 Ask Peter and Gower Spirit (Short priced fav here has 7lb in hand!)
2:40 Flintara (Lots of heavy form in this race!)
You can read Matt's research here. The full list of trainers is available to Platinum members so make sure you log in https://www.oncourseprofits.com/mudslingers-revisited/
If you'd like to upgrade to Platinum you can do that here https://oncourseprofits.com/upgrade
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All the best
Darren Power
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