Out Of Sync Profits
Profit From Unusual Betting Pattern Profits
This strategy is all about shadowing money from those that may be up to no good and where ‘we’ the average punter can gain if we stick to our normal staking level in terms of what we stand to lose on each bet. The question is, can you shadow this money to make a profit? I think so…
After a not so subtle hint from a professional football friend in early 2013, I began to scan through the lower league matches from the Betfair in-play market.
The tip-off was to look for teams which were currently losing by exactly two goals around the 60th minute mark.
I was told to carefully watch the markets to see if any unusual betting patterns arose – that is to say, either the sudden appearance of large funds looking to back the currently losing team to go on to win by a two goal margin, or wanting to Lay the team currently winning.
In other words, large amounts which appeared out of keeping with the in-play score line.
At first I thought my friend had been watching too many TV conspiracy documentaries, especially after seeing a programme about how Betfair Security can track unusual betting patterns quite easily.
Anyway, about a dozen games passed with no unusual patterns of any note. Then one Saturday evening it happened…
I was watching a League of Ireland First Division game in which Cobh Ramblers were playing Longford Town.
It was the 60th minute and Longford were losing 3-1 away from home when I spotted £8,000+ entering the market in two batches of £4,000 – each wanting to back Longford Town to win.
Yes…to back Longford to win even though they were 3-1 down with only 30 minutes to go!
After a few minutes the bettor or group behind the money could see there was little liquidity available to back Longford and quickly transferred it to lay Cobh Ramblers for a small liability.
As most of the money to back/lay is centred on the leading team in any market it would have been easier to match, especially in low liquidity games. Also, executing the bet the other way would have needed Longford to win, so by laying Cobh Ramblers their bet would come good even if the match ended in a draw.
From memory, they managed to get their lay on Cobh Ramblers matched fairly quickly at a price of around 1.10.
This wasn't market manipulators at work, or ‘spoofers' as they are known. The money was there to be matched from traders wanting to back Cobh Ramblers, the currently winning team at 3-1 up, despite the low backing odds.
Having seen the money matched I decided to shadow these guys and followed in with a £200 speculative Lay for a small liability of around £20.
Shortly afterwards, Longford Town pulled one back to make it 3-2 to Cobh Ramblers.
I (wrongly) decided to trade out for a profit across all outcomes. A shame really as Longford Town not only went onto equalise but then got the winner in the 93rd minute to make it Cobh Ramblers 3 Longford Town 4.
Here's the goal by goal account…
All of which brings me to the question – what was going on here?
Large amounts of cash entered the market seeking to back Longford to win when they were 3-1 down…amounts which were clearly very much out of alignment with the market at that point.
Was it just one of those rare occurrences when such games happen and the money was simply from speculative traders?
I somehow doubt it.
But perhaps it had been triggered by an injury to a key defender for the winning team?
No! I checked that out and all was fine.
And yet there seemed to be more about this game than just a magnificent come-back.
Over the next day-or-two it was reported that Betfair had withheld winnings from the game pending an investigation into the unusual betting pattern.
Hmmm!
Added to that, two days later the Irish Broadcaster RTE and the national press carried a news item on alleged match fixing involving the Longford Town players.
Here's a copy of an article headline published four days after the match in question…
The editorial went on to comment that a player had been suspended. Obviously he was the fall guy since it's doubtful one player on his own could influence the result to such an extent.
I'm not saying anything illegal was going on but it does get your mind working overtime.
On a lighter note, I had to laugh later at this comment I read about the incident…
“This player was not on the field to
influence the result of the game.”
How mad is that statement?
After all, twenty-two players are on the field to very definitely influence the match result. Why else would they be there?
For the record, my winnings were credited without any delay because my betting pattern was in keeping with my normal betting behaviour.
For the most part It's not what you stand to gain but what you stand to lose which catches the attention of the Betfair's Intelligence Unit. Also if there are any other suspicious betting patterns surrounding the event in question.
So if you uncharacteristically Lay a team at 1.10 for £1,000, even though your liability is only £100, you could still find your funds placed on hold pending further investigation if your normal staking level is to lose say £20 and the event has been flagged up due to unusual betting pattern from others.
Of course, if you've done it day-in-day-out it's your established betting pattern and shouldn't be an issue.
Put another way, if you regularly bet or trade to win around £200 and then you bet or trade to win £1,000+ on a match which warrants suspicion, don't be surprised to find your winnings are frozen pending an investigation.
A temporary freeze on winnings has only ever happened to me on three occasions. I'm glad to say that in each case they were credited shortly afterwards.
What do we take from all this and, more importantly, can we profit?
I won't beat about the bush.
There's no doubt some betting markets contain very unusual betting patterns which can only be described as suspicious, with some commentators claiming there are more fiddles going on in betting worldwide than would form an orchestra.
I wouldn't go that far.
All I'd say is that given the nature and complexity of human behaviour, certain events seem to embody more than meets the eye.
Happily, most sporting events are clean.
Yet there are times when cash amounts large enough to defy all form and logic drop into the betting markets, whether pre-event or in-play.
You'll often see these large stakes suddenly appear outside the bet/lay box and then just as suddenly disappear.
This is clearly the work of ‘spoofers' whose intention isn't to have the money matched but to force the market one way or the other for scalping purposes.
But whatever the reason behind the money, I fully recommend you shadow it – with one proviso…you must not actually follow it when it clearly isn't matched.
So where do you start?
Step-By-Step Guidelines
1). A good place is to browse lower league football matches in the UK & Ireland and also many South American leagues and look for matches where a team is leading by two goals at Half Time.
Check these Leagues out;
England
– National League ( Conference)
Rep Of Ireland
– First Division
Argentina
– Argentinian Primera B Metropolitana
– Argentinian Primera C Metropolitana
Chile
– Primera B
Colombia
– Primera B
El Salvador
– Primera Divsion
Equador
– Campeonato Serie B
I also suggest you pay particular attention to the Columbian Primera A & B Divisions to see how much money is waiting to be Layed on any ‘odds on’ Favourite to lose pre match.
Then follow that money and Lay the favourite and trade out once the underdog scores first. You’d be amazed how many odds on Fav’s actually lose the match when there is ‘Out of sync’ amounts waiting to be Layed on the favourite. Need I say more!
2). For lower Leagues in UK & Ireland where a team is winning by ‘2’ goals at Half Time, watch the in-play market around the 65th minute mark to see if there is a large amount of money waiting to be matched on the winning team to lose or draw the match. In other words, traders wishing to Lay the team winning 2-0 which is rather odd considering they are winning by ‘2’ clear goals with just 25 minutes to go?
3). Then when you find such games shadow that money and do same by Laying the winning team 2-0. Remembering to keep stakes at what you stand to lose in keeping with what your average expected loss is when backing.
Eg. If you normally bet £50 (meaning that’s how much you are prepared to lose) and a team is winning 2-0, they will normally be around 1.10 to Lay at that point (Depending on strength of the pre-match fav). Therefore, you can comfortably Lay up to a maximum of £500 on this bet as your losses will be a total of £50 (in keeping with your normal average to lose if betting at £50 stakes). That way you don't risk suspension of funds if a match attracts the attention of Betfair's Security team – which happens more often than you may think.
4). If the losing teams pulls one back to make it 2-1, you can then decide to trade out for a guaranteed profit across all outcomes so long as the goal comes before the 80th Minute. Or, you can stay in the game and hope for the 2-2 as your liability if it does not appear is just 0.10 on your stake when laying teams at 2-0 up at the 65th minute mark.
I’ve had many account suspensions as a result of using this and haven’t lost one yet. Although during that waiting period it proved no more than of a P**N in the A***E, but then again, I had back up as those bets were in line with my average winning ratio.
I've found quite a few since the example I mentioned earlier and on every occasion they've given me the opportunity to trade-out for a nice profit!
In the interests of accuracy I should point out that of the many events which lead to a suspension of funds pending further investigation, few are found to have been related to illegal practices.
And please note, this isn't a time consuming sit & stare strategy.
It's more for those occasions when you've a bit of spare time on your hands to leisurely sniff out what the big hitters are doing.
Using my guidelines, you need only a couple of them a month to make a sweet profit.
So give it a try. If you have your Laptop/Tablet handy in the evenings, then look again at my example above of normal market behaviour against my example of ‘Out of sync’ market behaviour, then you will soon get a feel for what money to follow.
If you are interested in unique and profitable betting angles like the above then don’t forget to check out my Quick-fire betting course. You can view more here.
