Quick Returners
Going back 30 years some flat racing system punters were able to make profits year in year out from horses that returned to the track very quickly. Systems ranged from horses that returned to the track within 3 days, to horses that had returned to the track within 7 days. For a while, you could make a profit backing these quick returners ‘blind’, and I remember the days when I was plugging in quick returner systems into the software of the day – rsb (racing systems builder), and finding numerous profitable systems to SP.
Eventually though punters and bookmakers began to catch on, prices started to contract and this profitable angle began to die out. However even now, backing ‘quick returners’ can give you a sporting chance to be profitable. Let me show you the fruits of my latest research:
For this article I am going back to 2014, focusing on flat racing in the UK and looking at horses that have returned to the track within 5 days of their last run.
Profits/losses have been calculated to Betfair SP as this gives punters far more chance of making profits than if backing to traditional SP.
Going back to 1st January 2014 these ‘quick returners’ within 5 days have produced the following overall figures:
Overall 9000 selections has produced a near to break even situation to BSP. The A/E value of 0.95 is also fairly positive. (For the record if backing at traditional Starting Price you would have lost 12p in the £. This simply demonstrates why backing SP these days is tantamount to betting suicidal).
Let me break this data down further. My first port of call is to break the data down comparing turf data to all weather data. Here are the splits:
Very similar return on investment despite a slight difference in strike rates.
Moving on to handicaps versus non handicaps next – my assumption is that there will be far more selections in handicaps but let’s see what the data gives us:
David Renham
When you have a broad approach that breaks even or makes a small profit you are well on the way to a profitable approach by digging down and excluding the dead wood.
For the Gold edition this month Dave Renham has done just that. Gold readers will learn which runners to focus on to make strong profits from this approach including identifying the trainer with a 70% ROI at BSP from his quick returners.
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