The Legend of The Turf – Dubawi

After looking at the career of Sir Michael Stoute in last month’s Legends of the Turf feature. This month I am changing tack slightly by looking at an equine legend, not a human one. The legend of the turf in question is super sire Dubawi.

Bred to be a Champion

Dubawi was foaled in 2002, a son of Champion Miler Dubai Millennium out of the mare Zomaradah.

His sire Dubai Millennium was sent off the 5/1 favourite for the 1999 Epsom Derby. Connections had fully expected him to win the Epsom Classic but he pulled hard early on in the race and his fate was soon sealed and he could only finish 9th. It was his only career defeat and the only time he raced over 1m 4f.

Later that season he won the 1m Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville and ended his three-year-old career with an easy win in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. At four he won the 1m 2f Dubai World Cup and also the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Sadly, he broke a leg, whilst still in training, so we never got to see how just good a horse he could have been. We do know he ended his four-year-old career rated the best racehorse in the world with a rating of 134.

Fortunately, he was saved by the vets to begin his stud career.

Dubawi’s dam Zomaradah was herself a top-class race mare on the track winning 6 of her 13 starts, including the Group 1 Italian Oaks and the E P Taylor Stakes at Woodbine in Canada, when trained by Luca Cumani and in addition to Dubawi subsequently produced five other winning horses.

Race Career

Dubawi was a top class performer for Godolphin and was unbeaten on all his three starts as a juvenile, winning the Group 3 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket and the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh.

Not surprisingly after his excellent juvenile year he was sent off the favourite for the 2000 Guineas but he ran below his best, and could only finish 5th. He put that disappointment behind him when winning Irish 2000 Guineas, before going on to finish 3rd behind Motivator in the Epsom Derby.

He didn’t stay the Derby distance and was dropped back to a mile for his next start when winning Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois, the same race that his sire had won as a 3-year-old. He wasn’t able to follow in his sire’s hoofprints however as he was beaten a ¾ length into second in Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on his final start as a 3-year-old.

That was the last time he was seen on the racecourse as he would be retired to start a new career as a stallion at Dalham Hall Stud at Newmarket.

Top class on the track but even better as a stallion

Since going to stud, he has gone on to be the most successful sire in England and of his peers, only Galileo has a better recent record with his progeny.

He was the fastest ever stallion to sire 50 Group winners and by the end of 2017 he had sired 35 Group or Grade 1 winners around the world.

His progeny’s record in Group or listed races in Britain & Ireland, has produced the following set of results since the start of 2013:

Group 1
12 winners from 105 runners 11% +28.74 A/E 0.78 30 placed 29%

Group 2
18 winners from 79 runners 23% +18.62 A/E 1.39 31 placed 39%

Group 3
32 winners from 141 runners 23% +63.37 A/E 1.32 61 placed 42%

Listed
33 winners from 192 runners 17% +41.17 A/E 0.89 80 placed 42%

94 winners from 507 runners 19% +153.9 A/E 1.07 201 placed 40% (profit to BSP +324.28)

You could have backed his runners blind and made a profit to industry SP and even more so to Betfair SP in each of the last five seasons in such races.

He has had two pattern successes already in 2018 when the fillies Soliloquy and Anna Nerium won the Nell Gwyn Stakes and European Free Handicap respectively at the Newmarket Craven meeting.

Progeny Going Stats

As for going preference his progeny’s record on good to soft, good or good to firm going is:

69 winners from 370 runners 19% +158.17 A/E 1.07 145 placed 39% (profit to BSP + 316.5)

Their record on all other going is:

25 winners from 137 runners 18% -4.27 A/E 1.07 56 placed 40%

Moving onto age. His 3-year-olds are at their best on good to soft, good or good to firm ground.

24 winners from 134 runners 18% +121.85 A/E 1.14 52 placed 39%

So far, it’s been different for his juveniles whose record in pattern races on going not good to soft, good or good to firm is:

6 winners from 15 runners 40% +12.75 A/E 1.57 A/E 8 placed 53%

Meanwhile on good to soft, good or good to firm its:

7 winners from 52 runners 13% +23.5 A/E 0.88 12 placed 23%

Progeny Distance Stats

Looking at distance.

His runners racing in UK & Irish pattern races at 1m 2f + is:

59 winners from 258 runners 23% +104.98 A/E 1.22 116 placed 45% (profit to BSP +195.78)

Notable Horses

Since he went to stud he’s produced plenty of winners. Here are few of the more notable ones with their foaling date in brackets:

Makfi – 2000 Guineas & Prix Jacques Le Marois (2007)

Monterosso – Dubai World Cup (2007)

Poet’s Voice – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2007)

Al Kazeem – Tattersalls Gold Cup (2) Eclipse Stakes (2008)

Night of Thunder – 2000 Guineas & Lockinge Stakes (2011)

Postponed – King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes & International Stakes (York) (2011)

Arabian Queen – International Stakes (York) (2012)

Erupt – Grand Prix de Paris (2012)

Journey – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Ascot) (2012)

New Bay – Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) (2012)

Left Hand – Prix Vermeille (2013)

Wuheida – Prix Marcel Boussac, Breeder Cup Filly & Mare turf (2014)

Wild Illusion – Prix Marcel Boussac (2015)

Benbati provided him with yet another Group 1 success when winning the Dubai Turf at Meydan on World Cup Night and I am sure his runners will provide him with more Group 1 success in this year across Europe.

Dubawi is also the sire of Dodging Bullets who won the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase, Grade I Clarence House Chase and the Grade I Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, in the 2014-2015 National Hunt season.

He still stands at his owners Sheikh Mohammad’s Dalham Hall Stud for £250,000 Oct 1, Special Live Foal and in 2017 he was the world’s leading yearling sales sire, for the third successive year with an average selling price of £751,000 and a top price of £2.7 million.

Dubawi Micro Angles:

As his above results show there are potentially profitable angles to be exploited by punters when it comes to his progeny. Here are few that look worth monitoring during 2018.

Since 2013 all his runners in UK & Ireland have produced the following set of results:

420 winner 2229 19% +59.3 A/E 0.98 904 placed 41% (profit to BSP +444.83)

Dubawi Runners in Group/Listed Races

Starting with his runners in Group & listed races on turf. The way to go looks to be to focus on his 3 to 5-year-olds, racing between 1m 2f & 1m 6f that had 2 to 6 career wins and had won their last start.

Rules

Race Class: Group or Listed
Horses Age: 3 to 5
Race Distance: 1m 2f to 1m 6f
Career Wins: 2 to 6
Last Time Out Placing: 1st

Those qualifiers have produced the following results:

25 winners from 63 runners 40% +63.76 A/E 1.79 41 placed 65% (profit to BSP +76.69)

System: Back all Dubawi Progeny running in Group or Listed class over a distance of 1m2f – 1m6f, aged 3 to 5 years with 2 to 6 career wins and finished first lto.

Dubawi Two-Year-olds

Looking at his juvenile runners and there is a big difference between those making their racecourse debut and those having a second run:

Runs in Career: 0 – 25 winners from 210 runners 12% -103.38 A/E 0.66 64 placed 30%

Runs in Career: 1 – 45 winners from 148 runners 30% +40.98 A/E 1.11 77 placed 52%

You can basically back his juveniles having their second start on the racecourse. But by digging a little deeper and concentrating on those runners whose first run was on turf and are either running in the same class as their last race or dropping in class.

Rules

Career Runs: 1
Race Code Last Run: Turf only
Class Move: Same or drop in class

34 winners from 89 runners 38% +52.05 A/E 1.25 57 placed 64% (profit to BSP +69.46)

System: Back all Dubawi Progeny having their second start on turf where they are running in the same or lower class.

Dubawi Runners at York

One track where his progeny do well is York. Once again, it’s those runners racing 1m 2f+ and having had no more than one run at the course that need focusing in on:

Rules

Track: York
Race Distance: 1m 2f+
Track Runs: 0 to 1

15 winners from 50 runners 30% +63.18 A/E 1.58 26 placed 52% (profit to BSP 109.74)

System: Dubawi progeny running at York over 1m 2f+ with one or less previous runs at the track.

Dubawi Three-Year-Old Handicappers

Now for those of you who like to have a bet in handicap races.

Here is an angle, involving his handicap debutants, that could be worth following this summer:

Rules

Race Code: Turf
Race Type: Handicap:
Age: 3-year-olds
Runs in Handicap: 0
Race Distance: 7f+

37 winners 126 runners 29% +87.74 A/E 1.34 61 placed 48% (profit to BSP +112.82)

System: Back Dubawi Progeny 3-year-olds, running for the first time in handicap races on turf over 7f+.

Well I hope you have enjoyed this brief look at the record of the stallion Dubawi and with any luck the micro angles can continue to pay their way during 2018.

Good luck!

John Burke

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