The Oaks: History and Race Trends

The first week in June and all eyes in the racing world turn to Epsom and of course arguably the most famous flat horse race in the world the Derby. But it’s not the only classic held on the famous Epsom Downs, as the day before it’s The Oaks. The fillies’ classic is run over the same distance as the Derby. This month in homage to the third English Classic of the flat season I am going to take a walk down memory lane by looking at The Oaks: History and Race Trends and include some of the notable winners, and also what sort of profile the likely winner should have.

The Oaks and The American War of Independence

The Oaks or as it tends to be known these days the Epsom Oaks to differentiate from the other Oaks around the world is actually older than the colt’s classic by one year. Making it the second oldest classic after the St Leger.

I suppose we should thank General Johnny Burgoyne, who when not fighting the rebels in the American Revolutionary War found the time to press his nephew, by marriage the 12th Earl of Derby, Edward Smith-Stanley, to introduce a race for three-year-old fillies over a mile and a half.

If the legend is to be believed the idea for the race on the Downs above the then Spa Town of Epsom came out a dinner party held at “The Oaks” in Carshalton, an estate that the Earl leased from his Aunt who was John Burgoyne’s wife.

The first race was run in 1779 and was won by Lord Derby’s own horse Bridget. At the victory party after the race Burgoyne suggested that a race should also be held for three-year-old colts over the same distance of the fillies’ race. All that needed to be decided was what to call the race. Who knows if the famous coin toss actually took place between Lord Derby and his friend Sir Charles Bunbury as to who would have the naming rights?

Well Derby supposedly won the coin toss; hence the great race was named the Derby and not the Bunbury.

The Roll of Honour: From Sceptre to Enable

Plenty of famous horses have won the race. Here are just a few of them,
In 1902 the filly Sceptre won both the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. She then went on to finish fourth in the Derby and just two days later gained a famous victory in the Oaks. She would later go on to win the St Leger and she remains the only horse to win four British Classics. A record that will never be equalled!

Pretty Polly unbeaten in nine runs as a juvenile. Won the 1904 1,000 Guineas before going onto win the Oaks at odds of 8/100 and later in the season the St Leger.

During the second world war, Epsom racecourse was not used for horse racing and the Oaks was run at Newmarket on the July course. In 1942 Sun Chariot, ridden by Gordon Richards and owned by King George VI was the winner, following up her success in the 1,000 Guineas. She would later go on to win the St Leger that season to take the fillies triple crown.

That same feat was also achieved by the Cecil Boyd-Rochfort trained Meld in 1955 who also won the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The present Queen had her first victory in the race in 1957 with Corrozza ridden by a certain Lester Piggott, who was also enjoying his first win in the race. Piggott would go onto win the race on five more occasions, including with Petite Etoile in 1957 owned by Prince Aly Khan who was the father of the present Aga Khan. The last of Piggott’s win came on the John Dunlop trained Circus Plume in 1984.

There could have been a no more appropriate winner of the 1977 race than her HM Queen as her runner Dunfermline, trained by Dick Hern, won the race in what was the Queen’s Silver Jubilee year. She also went on to win that season's St Leger at Doncaster.

Sheikh Mohammed’s famous red silks were first carried to victory in the race by the Henry Cecil trained Oh So Sharp in 1985, who had previously won the 1,000 Guineas and would then go on emulate the likes of Pretty Polly and Sun Chariot and beat the colts in the St Leger. Those silks would go on to win the race on three more occasions.

It was not good news for his HH Aga Khan when his filly Aliysa became the first British Classic winner to be disqualified after a positive dope test after her win in the 1989 race.

John Dunlop who trained Circus Plume to victory in 1984 followed up in 1990 with Salsabil, who had earlier in the season landed the first fillies Classic at Newmarket before making history as the first filly for 90 years to beat the colts in the Irish Derby at the Curragh.

Ouija Board, carried the famous Lord Derby silks to victory in 2004, 225 years after the same silks were carried to victory in the first ever running of the race.

The late Sir Henry Cecil who had his first win in the race with Oh So Sharp back in 1985 gained his eighth and final victory in the race with Light Shift to emotional scenes in the winners' enclosure.

Future globetrotting mare Snow Fairy was supplemented for the race in 2010 and also gave Ryan Moore his first English Classic win.

In more recent years Aiden O’Brien has dominated the race with six wins, since Shahtoush triumphed in the 1998 renewal. In 2012 his filly Was became part of history as O’Brien became the first trainer to win the Oaks, Derby and Coronation Cup at the same meeting. He has since gone onto win the race with Qualify in 2015, who at 50/1 is one of the three longest priced winners in the history of the race, and he took the race in the following year with English & Irish 1,000 Guineas heroine Minding.

John Gosden has won two of the four running’s of the race. The first with Taghrooda in 2014 who gave owner Hamdan Al Maktoum a third win in the race after Salsabil and Eswarah, in 2005.

He also took last year’s race with Enable who was sent off at odds of 6/1.

She would go on take the Irish Oaks, The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the Yorkshire Oaks before ending a memorable season with a victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triumphe.

What Does It Take to Win the Race?

The Investec Oaks is scheduled to be run on Friday, 1st June.

One certain thing is that another filly’s name will be added to the illustrious winners of the race.

Looking at the stats for the ten years there have been 10 winners from 123 runners 30 placed. An average field of 12 runners, with many of the fillies trying the trip for the first time. Which can make the race a tough puzzle for punters to solve?

Only two favourites have prevailed in the past decade for a loss of 4.84pts. Unusually for Group race like this, and unlike the Derby, five of the last ten winners of the race were sent off at odds 20/1 to 50/1 – 5 winners from 43 runners 12% +105 9 placed 21% (profit to BSP +204.51) So, punters shouldn’t be afraid to look for a selection that not at the front of the betting.

Key Race Trends

Now let’s highlight some of the key race trends to find the likely winners profile.

All of the last ten winners had won one of their last three starts.
All ten winners had raced one or two times in the past 90 days.
All ten winners had raced between 11 and 45 days previously.
Nine of the last ten winners had 1 or 2 career wins to their name.
Nine of the last ten winners had yet to win a race above Group 3 level.
Nine of the last ten winners recorded a Racing Post Rating of no more than 105 as a Juvenile.

Interesting Trends

5 winners from 39 runners 13% +40 A/E 1.75 11 placed 28% (Were stepping up 2f in distance from their last race).
7 winners from 53 runners 13% +60.25 A/E 1.25 17 placed 32% (Had 2 or 3 previous career runs).
6 winners from 68 runners 16 placed 24% A/E 1.18 (Ran in a listed race on their last start).

Trainer Stats

The three most successful trainers in recent years are:

Aiden O’Brien – 3 winners from 33 runners 9% +40.91 A/E 0.83 8 placed 24%.

Ralph Beckett – 2 winners from 10 runners 20% +45 3 placed 30%.

John Gosden – 2 winners from 11 runners 18% +2 A/E 1.54 4 placed 36%.

Paths to Victory

Pretty Polly Stakes – Newmarket – (Guineas Meeting) – 2 winners from 10 runners.

Irish 1,000 Guineas – Curragh – 2 winners from 9 runners 3 placed.

Other notable trials

Blue Wind Stakes – Naas – 1 winner from 7 runners 2 placed.

Cheshire Oaks – Chester 1 winner from 18 runners 3 placed (last year’s winner Enable did the double).

Musidora Stakes – York – 1 winner from 18 runners 5 placed (Sariska is the last filly to do the double back in 2009).

Lingfield Oaks Trial – Lingfield – 1 winner from 20 runners 4 placed.

Comments on This Year’s Renewal

At the time of writing the 1,000 Guineas has still to be run let alone the other Oaks trials and very cold spring, that has held up plenty of stables both sides of the Irish Sea, has helped to cloudy the Oaks picture this year.

Any Aiden O’Brien and Ralph Beckett’s runners need respecting and I will be watching with interest how the two Beckett entries fare in their trials. Cecchini, who could run at Chester or Lingfied and won her only start as two-year-old and Kinaesthesia, who also won her sole start last year at Nottingham and could go for the Pretty Polly at Newmarket. Both Ralph Beckett’s previous winners had their last race at either Lingfield or Newmarket.

Trainer Dermot Weld hasn’t won the Oaks since 1981 with Blue Wind and he’s only had five other runners in the race, including Tarfasha who was runner-up in 2014 but he has a possible runner in the once raced winner Contingent, owned by last year’s winning owner Prince Khalid Abdullah. The daughter of Frankel won in good style a backend maiden at Leopardstown in October and the form of the race already looks solid.

Contingent is bred to win a Classic and really appreciate middle distances as three-year-old. We haven’t seen her on the racecourse so far this year but she has an entry in the Blue Wind Stakes.

At the time of writing, she’s available at 20/1 which looks the most interesting price to me although she’s by no means a guaranteed runner.

Hopefully, the above trends & stats will help you to shortlist contenders for this year’s race.

Good luck and hope you back the winner!

John Burke