Those Hunter Chasers
Following on again for from the excellent research carried out by our resident stats expert, David Renham, we thought we’d look at some of the pointers highlighted in his article with a view to investigating some would be profitable angles. As always if they win it is all credit to Dave if they lose…well you know the answer.
Tom Ellis
The stats generated by Dave showed Tom Ellis’s Hunter Chasers as being standout given his Point to Point successes as a trainer. His profits figures were skewed by one large priced winner, but we feel he may merit further investigation.
That large priced winner came in 2021 at 40/1, and the other five successful runners that year were all priced at 5/2 or less, so we are not sure if there is anything more here but we’ll keep looking.
The bulk of his winners have come from his 6-9 year olds.
With his runners in Class 1 or Class 2 races though, only one of those has finished in the frame so we would suggest avoiding those classes of race.
Therefore, if we concentrate on his runners aged 6-9 years in any race NOT Class 1 or Class 2 we get the following set of results.
Of those 16 winners, 15 of them came at eight tracks, seven of which had an A/E of greater than one.
The numbers of runners will be few throughout the year, but 2024 returned a healthy strike rate of 38.46% and ROI of 140.79 to Betfair SP.
With no runners to date (15th January) in 2025 we may manage to pick up a few points following Tom Ellis’s runners sent to the above tracks.
JP-123-40-02-2025 – We will start the trial with effect from 1st February but keep an eye for any January runners during the rest of the month.
D J Kemp (David Kemp)
All but one of David Kemp’s runners in the past 5 years have been in Hunter Chases and his winners have come in fields of 12 runners or less, and in addition as mentioned by Dave those in the top part of the betting (have been the winners).
With 7 of the 8 runners having been Clear Third in the betting or better. Personally, we don’t feel that we can gain too much from this though given the small number of runners and the prices on offer.
Phillip Rowley
Phillip Rowley’s initial figures give us a good start.
One of those winners was in a National Hunt Flat race so we’ll discard that and concentrate on the chasers whose wins have come from just 6 courses. (N.B: his Cheltenham runners are 0 from 3).
Again, we are not expecting more than a handful of runners but it may be worth following the runners when sent to these tracks. JO-123-41-02-2025 – We will start the trial with effect from 1st February but keep an eye for any January runners during the rest of the month
The OCP Team
