Trained for the distance II
So carrying on from yesterday's mail we're looking to see if we can build on Colin's research into horses that ran over the same distance last time as today's race.
Specifically we are looking at non handicaps.
Note: If you would like to be added to our mailing list to receive these messages – Please Click Here
Over 1 mile and 2 furlongs, if you'd bet every horse last year that ran in a non handicap that raced over the same distance last time you would have made a 16% ROI.
Unfortunately that was an outlier and only one other year was profitable.
Over the 10 years there's a bit of profit in the older horses in Class 3 races but so few qualifiers that it's worthless information.
Nothing to talk about until we get to 1 mile 6 furlongs and we are getting closer now to the type of distance where this might pay off 🤞.
At 1 mile 6 furlongs you could bet all runners in non handicaps that raced at the same distance last time out for a 30% ROI at Betfair SP, we can bump that up to 39% if we look at turf flat only.
But less than 40 qualifying races a year we won't be getting a lot of action.
2 miles is where I expected to find some profit, but nothing doing.
Finally the race distance that prompted Colin to do the research 2 miles 4 furlongs, well there are only a couple of races each year on the flat at that distance and not enough data to learn anything there.
I'm not sure if we have found a lot of value with this exercise I guess because being a distance winner has always been a big factor in finding winners that this angle is devalued to a certain extent.
So it occured to ne to look at our best angle, which was 1mile 6 furlong races looking at horses that raced last time over that distance, non handicaps.
And add in that the horse was not a distance winner, the idea being the prices would be bigger and we'd get some value and what do you know our ROI jumps to 78%.
Which just goes to show that spending an hour in research is never totally wasted because new ideas pop up or reminders of old ideas.
If you haven't read Colin's original article I recommend that you go do that https://www.oncourseprofits.com/login
All the best
Darren Power
PS Pete Last cherry picked the best systems we shared in On Course Profits and started the Ten Pound Tipster service, he has produced consistent profit from 1 to 4 bets a day Click Here to join
PPS If you have questions hit reply and myself or one of the team will get back to you
PPPS You can cancel any paid for service at anytime by following the link in the footer of this mail
