Aintree Racecourse Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for AINTREE on Thursday 13 April 2023.
The going is expected to be good to soft.
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP RACES HANDICAP RACES Hurdle 23-55 42% -7.26 19-53 36% +4.69 Chase 11-26 42% -1.06 20-72 28% -5.29 NHF 5-20 25% -3.71 TOTAL 39-101 39% -12.03 39-125 31% -0.60 TOP 5 TRAINERS at Aintree (last 5 years) +/- E D Skelton (19%) 22-141 16% +60.50 -3% 4 P Nicholls (24%) 12-86 14% -19.71 -10% 4 N Henderson (22%) 12-98 12% -58.30 -10% 4 O Murphy (17%) 10-60 17% -11.75 +0% 1 N T-Davies (13%) 7-62 11% -27.75 -2% 2 HOT TRAINERS 14/03/2023 to 12/04/2023 +/- E T Ellis (28%) 17-32 53% +2.89 +25% 1 G L Moore (16%) 23-78 30% -0.17 +14% 2 O Murphy (17%) 23-88 26% -1.75 +9% 1 S Thomas (18%) 6-24 25% -3.38 +7% 3 COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E H De Bromhead (15%) 25 13 days 4 J Scott (13%) 23 40 days 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Aintree (last 5 years) +/- R H Skelton (22%) 22-118 19% +80.50 -3% 1 A Coleman (18%) 13-64 20% +25.00 +2% 1 S T-Davies (15%) 11-80 14% -19.29 -1% 3 S Bowen (17%) 10-65 15% -9.75 -2% 1 B Hughes (19%) 10-86 12% -6.62 -7% 3 HOT JOCKEYS 14/03/2023 to 12/04/2023 R J Codd (26%) 6-14 43% +14.80 1 W Biddick (26%) 10-24 42% +5.98 1 D O'Connor (15%) 9-31 29% +1.97 1 B O'Neill (15%) 11-38 29% -2.82 1 COLD LIST JOCKEYS SAW R S Houlihan (6%) 20 15 days 1 R Blackmore (15%) 19 12 days 3 B Hughes (19%) 16 11 days 3 TOP 5 OWNERS at Aintree (last 5 years) +/- E J P McManus (17%) 14-91 15% -0.71 -2% 4 T Hemmings (15%) 7-34 21% +14.80 +6% 0 Munir & Souede (18%) 5-40 13% -17.20 -5% 2 P & C Rooney (14%) 4-10 40% +8.94 +26% 0 B Barrett (21%) 3-5 60% +6.10 +39% 0 Fixtures Thursday 13 April 2023 Friday 14 April 2023 Saturday 15 April 2023
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites across the board at Aintree show 78-226 for 34.51% and a level stake loss of -£12.63 to a £1 stake.
Winning favourites in non-handicaps score 39-101 for 39%, whilst winning favourites in handicaps record 39-125 for 31% and a small level stake loss of -£0.60.
Tomorrow looks a good day for first and second favourites, at least on paper!
TRAINERS: Placing horses to win at Aintree is not an easy task according to the figures. Both Paul Nicholls (24%) and Nicky Henderson (22%) score 10% lower than their respective national averages. In the past 14 days Nicholls shows 7-22 for 32% whilst Henderson shows 4-20 for 20%.
Only Olly Murphy (17%) manages to replicate his national average at Aintree, albeit from a small 60-runner sample. He scores 8-34 for 24% over the past 14 days and SHE'S A FINE WINE 5.15 runs tomorrow for a place chance.
Paul Nicholls (24%) and Nicky Henderson (22%) are certain to have winners tomorrow and provide at least 3 of the 7 winners. Willie Mullins (12% UK) has 6 runners and could get on the scoresheet also. These look the 3 trainers to follow for this 7-race card!
JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) has 4 good rides and will be seeking a win double. Harry Skelton (22%) is top jockey at Aintree but conspicuously has just 1 ride on the first day of this festival.
The Racing Horse is a huge fan, but was not sure how good the Nico de Boinville's ride on Shishkin was at Cheltenham, watched the race a number of times and it looked as if he got into a right old muddle. A change of jockey could not happen for this, but perhaps it should? Could be wrong on this, but we know a muddle when we see one!
OWNERS: J P McManus (17%) has 4 entries including SAINT ROI 1.45, ZENTA 2.20, EPATANTE 3.30 & JOLIE COUER ALLEN 5.15.
All four could be placed at least.
RED FLAG: When is a trainer deemed to be on the cold list?
The last 14 days show Henry De Bromhead (15%) just 1-30 for 3%. He is currently 0-22 for April with just one second place, and 0-25 over the past 13 days.
Generally speaking, these numbers would be of some concern, but those figures are in sharp contrast to March, which showed 8-37 for 22% and 7 second places.
He has 4 runners tomorrow and hard to spot an obvious winner, they include A PLUS TARD 2.55, DANCING ON MY OWN & DEFAN 4.40 and JULY FLOWER 5.15.
Consequently, this losing run has contributed to Rachael Blackmore's losing run of 0-19 over a period of 12 days.
1.45
STAGE STAR (P Nicholls) – 4-5 over larger obstacles, bold jumping front-runner, Harry Cobden rides.
BANBRIDGE (J O'Brien) – Missed Cheltenham Festival because of ground concerns, J J Slevin rides.
2.20
ZENTA (W P Mullins) – Made it 2-2 over hurdles, still looking in need of experience in Fairyhouse Grade 3 before posting excellent 3rd in Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, clear of rest. Hard to beat. Mark Walsh rides.
SCRIPTWRITER (M Harris) – Beaten favourite last time out, yard won this race last year, Harry Cobden rides.
BO ZENITH (G Moore) – Open to further progress and place chance, hot trainer and Jamie Moore rides.
2.55
SHISHKIN (N Henderson) – Beaten favourite last time out, will stay at least 3m. Acts on soft going, tongue tie last 2 starts but not declared this time. Nico de Boinville rides, not sure he suits this horse, needs a more aggressive/different ride, but we have him favourite.
BRAVEMANSGAME (P Nicholls) – Acts on soft going, strong traveller and a fine jumper. Harry Cobden rides and this looks a match.
3.30
CONSTITUTION HILL (N Henderson) – Cannot be opposed, and suits the riding style of Nico de Boinville.
4.05
WINGED LEADER (D Christie) – Trainer 22% with horses 19f up to 3m, B O'Neill rides.
MAGIC SAINT (P Nicholls) – Trainer 24% with horses 19f up to 3m, Olive Nicholls rides.
NOT THAT FUISSE (D Skelton) – Beaten favourite last time out, Jack Andrews rides.
ITS ON THE LINE (E Mullins) – Trainer 22% with horses 19f up to 3m, Derek O'Connor rides.
4.40
THIRD TIME LUCKI (D Skelton) – Bounced back to best to score at Sandown (15.5f) in February. Again shaped well (fared best of those from off the pace) when 4th in Grand Annual and now 1lb lower mark, Harry Skelton rides.
PAY THE PIPER (A Hamilton) – Beaten favourite last time out, Danny McMenamin rides.
HATCHER (D Skelton) – Weighted to win 143 > 130, Tristan Durrell rides.
5.15
WILLIAMSTOWNDANCER (W P Mullins) – Beaten favourite last time out Patrick Mullins rides.
SEEYOUINMYDREAMS (P Nicholls) – 235,000gns purchase, wind surgery ahead of winning bumper debut at Newbury 6 weeks ago (unchallenged), Harry Cobden rides.
JULY FLOWER (H De Bromhead) – Formerly with M Seror, unbeaten in 2 French bumpers, Rachael Blackmore rides.
MAGIC DAWN (G Elliott) – Formerly with M Hickey. Improved markedly from debut landing an 11-runner event at Punchestown 103 days ago. Further improvement assured for Gordon Elliott, Davy Russell rides.
Even though it’s flat, it can be very testing for a horse, so you need one that can travel. The winner is almost always still on the bridle leaving the back straight – take a look at some old tapes if you want proof – and those that aren’t really struggle to get home. It’s a long, long way from the home turn to the line and a very long run-in, so you need to have a bit of horse left under you all the way up the home straight to have any chance. As a general rule, it’s the horses that can get into a rhythm, racing nicely on the bridle, who do best at Aintree
– Mick Fitzgerald
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
Featured Image: Finishing Post At Aintree | Horses head to the finishing pos… | Flickr
