Ascot Horse Racing Tips for Today

The Racing Horse offers their Ascot Racecourse Template for Friday 10 May 2024.

There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be good.

Winning favourites (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap

2yo 25-72 35% -11.31 1-6 17% -2.25
3yo 26-73 36% -1.96 39-104 38% 21.23
4yo+ 27-79 34% -5.16 32-137 23% -25.36
TOTAL 78-224 35% -18.43 72-247 29% -6.38

Ascot Top Trainers past 5 years +/- E
William Haggas (22%) 26-179 15% -49.06 -7% 1
J & T Gosden (21%) 24-165 15% +8.12 -6% 2
Andrew Balding (15%) 24-256 9% -91.81 -6% 4
Charlie Appleby (29%) 21-132 16% -20.39 -13% 0
Roger Varian (20%) 21-178 12% -5.90 -8% 4

Ascot Top Jockeys past 5 years +/- R
Jim Crowley (19%) 29-168 17% +17.31 -2% 0
Ryan Moore (18%) 28-226 12% -71.94 -6% 0
Frankie Dettori (22%) 26-160 16% -29.19 -6% 0
William Buick (23%) 25-200 13% +1.45 -10% 0
Oisin Murphy (19%) 22-168 13% -26.50 -6% 0

Ascot Top Owners past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 31-213 15% -14.30 -10% 0
Shadwell Est (23%) 16-82 20% -0.22 -3% 0
Hamd Maktoum (21%) 11-46 24% +30.79 +3% 0
Obaid Maktoum (21%) 11-72 15% +39.61 -6% 0
Juddmonte (23%) 5-38 13% -2.90 -10% 1

Fixtures
Saturday 11 May 2024

FAVOURITES: There is not a correlation for winning favourites to strike higher on the better racecourses providing better quality races, than those on lesser courses running in poorer quality races! Ascot is the living proof! This course over the past 5 years return 150-471 for 31.85% and a figure significantly below the national average of around 33%. Context is everything:

Ascot:             150-471  for 31.85%
Epsom: 71-226 for 31.42%
Southwell AW: 515-1490 for 34.56%
Wolverhampton AW: 1006-2805 for 35.86%

One could argue Wolverhampton AW provides the lowest quality racing in the UK on a course heavily dependent on draw and pace bias, yet the wisdom of the crowd delivers a much higher strike rate than those who think they understand the nuances of Ascot!

TRAINERS: Furthermore, results show how difficult it is for trainers to excel on this course when measured against their personal national averages. In fact, each of our top 5 trainers score considerably below their respective national averages. For example, William Haggas is -7%, J & T Gosden are -6%, Andrew Balding is -6%, Charlie Appleby is -13% & Roger Varian is -8%.

Excluding Charlie Appleby, the other 4 top trainers at Ascot have 11 runners between them and this represents a processing starting point for the meeting. Appleby has no runners for this meeting but we note 2 are entered in the same race at Nottingham tomorrow, they are INNER PEACE & ACT IN LINE 6.34. His figures at the course are moderate comparatively speaking showing 6-26 for 23%, of those beaten 7 have finished second, so 13-26 for 50% of his runners finish first or second. Place bet and place bet saver?

Roger Varian (20%) has 4 runners at Ascot tomorrow and whilst he scores a modest 12% at the course we know he has banked £3,241,223 in prize money over the last 5 years alone! His 5-year figures show 21-178 for 12% (-5.90) but note he has recorded 21 second places also, for a strike rate of 24% for first or second places! He can win at big prices at this course and his runners include ACCUMULATE 1.50, QUEEN OF SOLDIERS 2.55, RUSSET GOLD 3.330 & FLAVOUR MAKER 4.00

JOCKEYS: None of the top 5 jockeys at the course have a ride tomorrow.
James Doyle's (19%) rides catch the eye and he looks good for a winner, they include ACCUMULATE 1.50, QUEEN OF SOLDIERS 2.55, RUSSET GOLD 3.330, FLAVOUR MAKER 4.00 & SUSPICION 4.35

OWNERS: Only Juddmonte (23%) of the top 5 owners at the course have a runner at Ascot tomorrow, it is HILLBRIDGE 2.55 trained by Andrew Balding and to be ridden by David Probert.

Pertinence and Pertaining

1.50
DRAGON LEADER
(C Cox) talented 2yo with a stack of form makes handicap debut, Danny Tudhope rides
AMERICAN BAY (H Charlton) reappearance at Newbury chock-full of promise, would have finished closer with a clear run, well handicapped now, Callum Shepherd rides

2.20
MISS RASCAL
(P & O Cole) eye catcher on Newmarket debut, trainer 2-4 with 2yo this year, the one to beat. Tom Marquand rides
NAANA'S DIAMOND (A Haynes) shaped very well on debut, Kieran O'Neill rides

2.55
HILLBRIDGE
(A Balding) Frankel filly, green and steps up in trip, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, David Probert rides
QUEEN OF SOLDIERS (R Varian) €380,000 yearling has Ribblesdale entry, James Doyle rides

3.30
DREAM COMPOSER
(H Evans) beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 96 > 88, Dougie Costello rides
RUSSET GOLD (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out, James Doyle rides
GLENFINNAN (M Dods) long traveller 259-miles, Connor Beasley rides

4.00
FLAVOUR MAKER
(R Varian) beaten favourite last time out, James Doyle rides
IMPERIAL GUARD (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, Danny Tudhope rides
JIMMY SPEAKING (C Dwyer) career-best win in 5-runner Chelmsford Handicap 22 days ago. Well on top at the finish. Lewis Edmunds rides

4.35
LET'S DREAM
(M Bell) beaten favourite last time out, Hector Crouch rides
SUSPICION (O Sangster) improver seeking hat-trick on handicap debut, trainer's last 2 runners have won. James Doyle rides
TERAABB (C Fellowes) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Jamie Spencer rides

5.10
BAILEY'S KHELSTAR
(C Johnston) plenty to spare when scoring at Southwell on reappearance and Archie Young's 5lb claim negates the penalty
CHERRY COLA (S West) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Rose Dawes rides
HEDONISTA (E Walker) progressive last season, improved to get off the mark at Kempton 7 months ago. Type to make better 4yo, big chance, Joe Leavy (5) rides

Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning – jockeyship in other words – is key. It goes without saying that in steadily run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere.

– Jason Weaver

Paul MoonThe Racing Horse