The Racing Horse offers our Ascot Racecourse Template for Friday 6 October 2023.
There is a 6-race card containing 3 Handicaps, a Listed Race, a Classified Stakes and a Novice Stakes Race.
The going is expected to be good.
Winning favourites (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 29-89 33% -14.19 2-7 29% -1.00 3yo 29-80 36% -4.04 51-137 37% +31.81 4yo+ 37-95 39% +1.42 41-154 27% -7.19 TOTAL 95-264 36% -16.81 94-298 32% +23.62 Ascot Top Trainers past 5 years +/- E W Haggas (23%) 30-207 14% -53.81 -9% 4 A Balding (15%) 30-305 10% -82.31 -5% 4 C Appleby (29%) 25-167 15% -42.64 -14% 0 R Varian (20%) 25-206 12% -17.02 -8% 1 J & T Gosden (22%) 22-150 15% +9.87 -7% 3 Hot Trainers 06/09/2023 to 05/10/2023 +/- E S & E Crisford (20%) 9-39 23% -2.07 +3% 1 J & T Gosden (21%) 15-68 22% -9.89 +1% 3 Cold List Trainers SAW E J Portman (8%) 24 20 days 2 M Appleby (11%) 19 11 days 1 Ascot Top Jockeys past 5 years +/- R F Dettori (23%) 36-201 18% -6.08 -5% 0 R Moore (18%) 35-268 13% -80.98 -5% 0 J Crowley (20%) 30-209 14% -11.93 -6% 1 W Buick (22%) 27-214 13% -4.67 -9% 3 O Murphy (19%) 25-216 12% -61.75 -9% 4 Hot Jockeys 06/09/2023 to 05/10/2023 +/- R W Buick (23%) 30-115 26% +13.47 +3% 3 B Hampson (14%) 2-8 25% +46.50 +11% 1 O Murphy (19%) 27-133 20% -8.42 +1% 4 P Dobbs (12%) 6-30 20% +0.23 +8% 1 R Ryan (15%) 21-109 19% -14.14 +4% 3 S Osborne (12%) 14-73 19% +16.76 +7% 3 Cold List Jockeys SAW R T Whelan (8%) 57 33 days 1 Ascot Top Owners past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 35-262 13% -57.05 -12% 1 Shadwell Est (24%) 16-79 20% +2.77 -4% 1 Obaid A Maktoum (20%) 16-87 18% +53.99 -2% 0 Ham A Maktoum (22%) 14-87 16% +24.54 -6% 0 K Abdullah (24%) 9-40 23% +15.43 -1% 0 Fixtures Friday 6 October 2023 Saturday 7 October 2023 Saturday 21 October 2023 Saturday 4 November 2023
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Ascot over the past 5 years show 189-562 for 33.63% yielding a level stake profit of +£6.81 so favourites win just above the national average of around 32%.
Whilst the sample size is fairly robust (562 races) this racecourse template produces contrary figures, because winning favourites in handicaps out-perform those in non-handicaps from a profit & loss perspective.
This is largely due to the 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring 51-137 for 37% and a level stake profit of +£31.81 to SP.
TRAINERS: Our +/-% figures prove how hard it is for trainers and jockeys to have winners at this course. Not one of our esteemed top 5 trainers produce a level stake profit at the track and each of them are massively down compared to their national averages!
To elaborate, Andrew Balding is second top trainer at Ascot yet scores at 10% and best trainer Charlie Appleby is a massive -14% down at this course despite his skill-set and the quality of his horses.
Ed Walker (14%) has 3 runners at Ascot tomorrow, but 5 at the course on Saturday, one of which includes DARK TROOPER 3.00 who is 2-2 at the course, 4-7 over 6f and winning £57.383 in prize money. Not only that the trainer is top trainer this year at the course with 6-25 for 24% (+5.08) and the trainer scores 17% at the course over the past 5 years. The 3yo Dark Angel must surely be worth a look based on that!
JOCKEYS: Oisin Murphy (19%) has 4 rides including HAMPDEN PARK 2.47, STORMBUSTER 3.22, MIDDLE EARTH 3.57 & KING'S LYNN 5.05 William Buick (23%) has 3 rides including HICKORY 3.22, CHESSPIECE 3.57 & ART DE VIVRE 4.30. He then jets off to ride REBEL'S ROMANCE 7.40 Belmont for Charlie Appleby and he looks a good thing despite the forecast rain.
We will probably miss the best price but will wait for ground conditions to be confirmed before getting involved.
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have just the one runner in CHESSPIECE 3.57. This one is a 3yo colt and top rated for this Listed Race trained by S & E Crisford and ridden by William Buick. Godolphin have recorded poor numbers at this course this year scoring just 5-47 for 11% (-28.52) but they started the season with a national average of 25% and they are recording 25% now.
Shadwell Estate (24%) compete in the same race with favourite NAQEEB 3.57, this one trained by William Haggas and ridden by Jim Crowley.
Pertinence
2.12 (Amateur Handicap)
ALAZWAR (A Watson) weighted to win 85 > 76, Brodie Hampson rides, she is 14% but 0-3 at Ascot
MOBASHR (M Appleby) confirmed good form in stronger C&D race last month, Becky Smith rides though 0-38 over 372 days
KIMNKATE (R Hughes) so consistent 212122, Taryn Langley (5) rides, she is 3-20 for 15%, first ride at Ascot
2.47 (Favs: 36%)
SCENIC (E Walker) beaten favourite last time out, Saffie Osborne rides, currently 6-21 for 29%
SYLLABUS (W Haggas) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides
THROUGH THE AGES (G Moore) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with C Appleby. Trainer +£96.11 when one runner at a meeting, Tom Queally rides
3.22
FLORIDA (W Haggas) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Tom Marquand rides and 37% on favourites
JEFF KOONS (J & T Gosden*) beaten favourite last time out, Rob Havlin rides
METAL MERCHANT (J Channon) beaten favourite last time out, Rossa Ryan rides
3.57 (Favs: 36%)
CHESSPIECE (S & E Crisford) drops from Group 1 to Listed, trainer 21% with horses running 10f+, William Buick rides MIDDLE EARTH (J & T Gosden) drops from Group 1 to Listed, trainer 22% with horses running 10f+, Oisin Murphy rides
4.30
ART DE VIVRE (C Fellowes) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides
EL JASOR (C Fellowes) beaten favourite last time out, Harry Davies rides
SEA STONE (I Mohammed) beaten favourite last time out, Benoit Sayette rides and 38% on favourites
5.05
TANMAWWY (C Hills) trainer +£29.42 when one runner at a meeting, trainer 4-20 for 20% (+91.72) at Ascot this year, Kevin Stott rides
YAASER (J Goldie) long traveller 406-miles, Amie Waugh (5) rides
ROHAAN (P Evans) weighted to win 109 > 102, Neil Callan rides
Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning – jockeyship in other words – is key. It goes without saying that in steadily run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere
– Jason Weaver