Ascot Racecourse Template (Friday 2 September 2022)
The Racing Horse offers their Ascot Racecourse Template for Friday 2 September 2022.
There is a 7-race card containing 3 Handicaps, a Maiden, 2 Novice Races and a Classified Stakes Race.
The going is expected to be good.
Winning favourites (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 22-86 26% -26.75 2-6 33% -1.55 3yo 31-77 40% +6.12 51-132 39% +31.05 4yo+ 38-98 39% -2.62 41-142 29% +13.01 TOTAL 91-261 35% -23.25 94-280 34% +42.51 Ascot Top Trainers past 5 years +/- E J & T Gosden (21%) 49-277 18% -15.56 -3% 1 W Haggas (23%) 29-186 16% -60.00 -7% 2 A Balding (15%) 29-272 11% -50.18 -4% 6 C Appleby (29%) 27-147 18% -14.35 -11% 1 R Varian (20%) 23-184 13% -49.55 -7% 3 Ascot Top Jockeys past 5 years +/- R F Dettori (23%) 38-199 19% -7.87 -4% 2 R Moore (18%) 36-268 13% -78.39 -5% 5 J Crowley (19%) 31-208 15% +14.56 -4% 0 W Buick (22%) 31-209 15% +19.69 -7% 0 J Doyle (20%) 24-201 12% -51.34 -8% 0 Ascot Top Owners past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (24%) 35-245 14% -41.11 -10% 3 H Al Maktoum (21%) 18-123 15% +12.91 -6% 0 Obaid A Maktoum (20%) 16-87 18% +11.89 -2% 0 Shadwell Estate (22%) 14-59 24% +4.27 +2% 0 K Abdullah (25%) 14-62 23% +21.18 -2% 0 Hot Trainers 03/08/2022 to 01/02/2022 +/- E C Appleby (29%) 19-56 34% -10.76 +5% 1 O Burrows (20%) 3-11 27% +2.08 +7% 1 W Haggas (23%) 23-88 26% +3.39 +3% 2 J Tate (17%) 6-23 26% -9.00 +9% 1 A P O'Brien (12%) 20-84 24% -14.60 +12% 2 H & R Charlton (17%) 9-38 24% +6.42 +7% 1 Trainer Cold List SAW E D Shaw (7%) 44 1 B Meehan (10%) 24 1 G Margarson (11%) 17 2 W Haggas (23%) 16 2 Hot Jockeys 03/08/2022 to 01/09/2022 +/- R R Moore (18%) 17-59 29% -2.83 +11% 5 Jockey Cold List SAW R A Kirby (15%) 31 4 T Marquand (14%) 21 7 Fixtures Friday 2 September 2022 Saturday 3 September 2022 Friday 30 September 2022 Saturday 1 October 2022
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Ascot over the past 5 years show 185-541 for 34.20% yielding a level stake profit of +£19.26. The sample size is robust but contrary at the same time. For winning favourites in handicaps to virtually out-perform those in non-handicaps is unique on UK Racecourses.
The template reminds us to be wary of backing 2yo favourites in non-handicaps returning a paltry 26% strike rate, whilst winning 3yo favourites return 82-209 for 39.23% for a profit of +37.17 in both categories. Those figures are partly due to the good returns of those 3yo from the current year: 9-16 for 64% (+9.63) in non-handicaps, and11-24 for 46% (+7.53) in handicaps, totalling 20-40 for 50% (+17.16).
TRAINERS: Our +/-% figures prove how hard it is for trainers and jockeys to have winners at this course. Not one of our esteemed top 5 trainers produce a level stake profit at the track and each of them are way down compared to their national average!
Just a reminder about the Gosden figures. John Gosden has scored 34-173 for 20% (-26.48) whilst the new team J & T Gosden score 15-104 for 14% (+10.88) over the past 5 years. Likewise, Roger Charlton shows 8-48 for 17% (-15.13) whilst H & R Charlton score 2-11 for 18% (+8.33).
JOCKEYS: Hot jockey Ryan Moore (18%) could be the man to follow given his 5 rides, but cold list jockey Tom Marquand (14%) has a full book of 7 rides. One imagines winners from this duo.
OWNERS: Only Godolphin (24%) from our leader board has runners for tomorrow and they have 3 in: CITY OF KINGS 2.35, COLOUR IMAGE 3.45 & DUBAI MIRAGE 4.20
2.00
HELLO DEIRA (O Burrows) beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Moore rides and 38% on favourites
PINAFORE (W Haggas) 75 of Dark Angel's progeny have won on flat debut, Tom Marquand rides
JURYMAN (A Balding) trainer shows profit of £30.05 with debutants, David Probert rides
2.35
CITY OF KINGS (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, trainer national average of 29%, Adam Kirby rides
BURNISH (W Haggas) 51 of Kingman's progeny have won on flat debut, Tom Marquand rides
SOVEREIGN SPIRIT (A Balding) trainer shows profit of £30.05 with debutants, David Probert rides
3.10
ALSEYOOB (I Mohammed) drops from Group 3 to Class 4, trainer shows profit of £31.08 when one runner at a meeting, Benoit De La Sayette rides
DIVYA (E Walker) 111 of Galileo's progeny have won on debut, Kieran Shoemark rides
SCENIC (E Walker) 58 of Lope De Vega's progeny have won on debut, Tom Marquand rides
3.45
COLOUR IMAGE (Saeed bin Suroor) trainer 22% with horses 7f up to 10f, Ray Dawson rides
AL MARMAR (A Balding) showed improved form when doubling his tally over C&D in July, Ryan Moore rides and 38% on favourites
4.20
REBEL TERRITORY (A Perrett) fresh for time of year following excellent effort in deeper handicap at Glorious Goodwood, fancied to strike from same mark, Ryan Moore rides and 38% on favourites
4.55
ALCAZAN ( R Teal) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £113.52 when one runner at meeting, Tom Marquand rides
SOUND OF IONA (J Goldie) longest traveller 406 miles, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Amie Waugh rides
MADAME FENELLA (D Shaw) long traveller 253 miles, trainer shows profit of £23.86 when one runner at a meeting, David Probert rides
RAINBOW MIRAGE (R Hughes) formerly with M Rimell
5.25
AL AMEEN (G Boughey) beaten favourite last time out, Connor Planas rides
LOVE DE VEGA (C & M Johnston) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Frankie Dettori rides
MAJESTIC FIGHTER (H & R Charlton) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £23.34 when one runner at a meeting, David Probert rides
Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning – jockeyship in other words – is key. It goes without saying that in steadily-run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere – Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0) – Ascot