AW Trainers to Follow in July to October – A New Look
I am a big fan of systems, in particular, trainer ones, so I always make sure to take a close look at the trainer micro systems articles in the magazine researched by the ever-excellent Dr Nick Hardman.
For those punters like myself who have systems based on trainer patterns, we are dependent on the trainer continuing with the same method of operation as in previous years.
One of the traps that punters can fall into is to believe that a high performing system will continue to perform successfully but it depends how strong the systems are. Now Nick’s are as well researched as any I have seen, so we have no problem with their robustness.
Even the Best Trainer Systems Don’t Always Work Out as You Would Like!
There may be very good reasons why a trainer who has traditionally done well with a certain type of horse or months of the year just stops being good at what they did.
Here are a few examples:
A trainer who has done well on the all-weather may decide to concentrate on the turf. A couple of seasons ago trainer David Barron decided to concentrate on the turf rather than on the all-weather where he had been having plenty of success with his horses.
A trainer with a good record with first time out juveniles may decide to look for horses who will improve with racing. Richard Hannon Snr was a noted trainer when it came to winning first time out 2-year-old’s but his son who has since taken over the licence. Tends to have juveniles who do better with a race under their belt.
There could have been a fall out with a leading owner in a yard which has meant the trainer has lost a number of horses that have been the backbone of his training strategy.
A trainer who has a good record in July & August with good or quick ground horses may well find his win strike rate declines if we have a wet summer and of course vice versa a yard that excels with ‘mudlarks’ can find a dry spell disrupts their plans.
The yard that has done well in April & May could find that it has a virus, so that nice spring micro angle you had for Trainer A over the previous five season fails to perform as it should.
People often ask me to look at previous micro systems to see if they if they remain profitable or not and in all truth it’s rather good to do some testing to see how they have performed live since they were first published.
In this month’s article, this is what I am going to do. As I look at a group of trainers to follow that Nick put up 12 months ago for the summer all-weather racing.
As Nick said in the article:
“Unless you are a seriously dedicated punter, most bettors concentrate on the turf races during these months as these are the feature meetings which are often televised.
Attention is usually switched to the AW in November when the “AW season” traditionally kicks off. However, sometimes it can pay to look at the AW races whilst the flat season is in full swing”.
In the article, Nick looked at the all-weather courses individually to find what trainers were profitable to follow on the synthetics over the summer months.
So, let’s see how they performed last year.
Starting with Kempton.
Kempton
James Fanshawe
Nick concentrated on the trainers 3-year-old to 5-year-olds runners only. Which had produced the following set of results from 2008:
Now looking at each year’s results:
The results for 2017 are:
Summary: A dreadful year on the winner’s front, very similar to 2008 in that regard, and the Chi score of 4.03 indicates that these results are not down to chance. The place strike rate whilst reasonable isn’t as good as in recent seasons either. Has the trainer changed his method of operation? Has he not been getting the right sort of horses to run on the synthetics?
It would be a watching brief for me with this trainer but it’s still too early to bin it, although by October you will know whether it’s worth carrying on with or not.
Saeed Bin Suroor
Moving on to the second Kempton trainer Saeed Bin Suroor.
Nick concentrated on the trainers 2-year-old & 3-year-old runners which had produced the following set of results:
Then digging a little deeper by focusing in on the age restricted races (i.e. races restricted to 2yo and 3yo runners only.
Looking at each year’s results in turn.
Nick had advised a watching brief on backing these runners after a poor 2016, compared to previous seasons and he was right to do so.
Summary: Now not much damage done as the trainer just had the three runners all losing. This wasn’t too surprising given the trainer’s widely commented view that his 2-year-old were rather backward last year but he also didn’t have any three-year-old runners which suggest to me that the trainer's horses were not 100% either.
Another watching brief here but I have a hunch that we could well see the trainer returning to form this year at Kempton.
Now moving onto the second track, the tapeta surface at Wolverhampton.
Wolverhampton
Sir Mark Prescott
Nick highlighted Sir Mark’s Prescott’s runners with the following criteria – 3-year-old+ horse and runners racing at distances 7f+. They had produced the following set of results from 2008.
So how did they do in 2017?
Granted not as good a year as 2016 when the trainer had 5 winners from 8 runners 63% +20.66 but decent enough. But at least the place percentage was slightly higher than average.
Summary: I have a feeling that Sir Mark will continue to do well with such runners at Wolverhampton but how much profit, if any, will be made is a bit of an unknown.
Now moving onto track three and Lingfield.
Lingfield
As Nick pointed out last year Lingfield doesn’t have as many all-weather fixtures as the previous two tracks. In the main because it also has a flat turf track which host’s plenty of summer fixtures.
At Lingfield, Nick highlighted two trainers Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute. Starting with the former.
Saeed Bin Suroor
Since 2008 the trainer had produced the following set of results between July & October on Lingfield’s all-weather track.Granted not as good a year as 2016 when the trainer had 5 winners from 8 runners 63% +20.66 but decent enough. But at least the place percentage was slightly higher than average.
Summary: I have a feeling that Sir Mark will continue to do well with such runners at Wolverhampton but how much profit, if any, will be made is a bit of an unknown.
Now moving onto track three and Lingfield.
Lingfield
As Nick pointed out last year Lingfield doesn’t have as many all-weather fixtures as the previous two tracks. In the main because it also has a flat turf track which host’s plenty of summer fixtures.
At Lingfield, Nick highlighted two trainers Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute. Starting with the former.
Saeed Bin Suroor
Since 2008 the trainer had produced the following set of results between July & October on Lingfield’s all-weather track.
Nick suggested that given the almost 40%-win strike rate you could back all his runners without the need for additional filters.
So, how did the trainer fare in 2017?
Given that the trainer had been having an average of 10 runners a year then his total number of runners last year were well below the average. Mind you at least both his runners placed.
Summary: A bit more evidence that the well being of the trainer’s horses last year was not all it could be. He will be hoping for better this year.
Sir Michael Stoute
Since 2008 the trainer had produced the following set of results between July & October on Lingfield’s all-weather track:
As with the previous trainer, Nick was happy to look at all the trainer’s runners here during the summer months.
Although he did note that from a profit perspective, the trainer’s 3-year-olds provided the best ROI.
So, how did Sir Michael fare in 2017?
Well given that the trainer normally sent on average 7 or 8 runners to the track in the summer, he was another trainer who was down on numbers, with his two runners being beaten at odds of 9/4 & 5/1 respectively.
Summary: Last year was the second successive year that the trainer has sent just two runners here over the summer months. Could this be a trend or will 2018 see Sir Michael return with his horses? We will probably know by the end of October.
Southwell
Again, another track with few all-weather meetings during the summer months and Nick didn’t find any standout trainers on the stats front worth following.
Finally, let's look at the final all-weather track monitored in the article.
Chelmsford
David Simcock
David Simcock was the trainer that Nick finally focused on here. The track had only had two summers of all-weather racing since it’s reopening as Chelmsford City.
In those two years, all David Simcock’s runners produced the following set of results:
Interestingly Nick found that there was a big difference between the trainer’s runners in non-handicap and handicap races. 
An excellent win strike rate & ROI to both industry & Betfair SP, for his runners in handicaps.
Firstly, let’s see how the trainer did with all his runners in 2017.
More importantly, let’s look at his record in handicaps:
Not as many runners in the previous two years but those that he did send still ran well and a nice profit was made courtesy of Doctor Sardonicus who was sent off at odds of 12/1.
This is the trainer's record in handicaps for the last three years:
System: Back David Simcock runners in handicaps at Chelmsford between July and October
There you have it a bit of mixed bag with the trainers. The eye-catching one for me is David Simcock and his handicap runners at Chelmsford. But I will also be expecting Saeed Bin Suroor to fare much better at both Kempton & Lingfield in 2018.
Finding trainer trends remains a great way for the shrewd punter to find that vital ‘edge’ over the rest of the betting fraternity. All in all, I think Nick has pointed us in the right direction when it comes to trainers to follow on the all-weather in the summer months.
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