Betting Reflections

A look at my personal betting over the past three years.

I am writing this piece as we approach the start of 2025. You will be reading this a few weeks later and by then I would have started to implement a few changes to my betting strategy based on my betting results from the past three years.

I do this type of re-evaluation every three years rather than yearly because I know from experience that results from certain types of bets can fluctuate over a shorter time frame. For some, a year may be plenty long enough, and of course, each to their own. However, you must do what works best for you and that is three years for me.

I have not shared my betting results publicly for around 17 years. Back in the early 2000s I was running a tipping service and the very nature of this required me to publish my results. You go through a real mix of emotions when running a tipping service, or at least I did.

When the results were going well, I felt on such a high, but the lows when the results turned, were far more extreme.

Ultimately the reason I stopped tipping was that it became too pressurised. The pressure eventually impacted on my betting decisions, and I became less successful as a result.

So, on to the present day and time to examine my 2022 to 2024 betting record.

Before I start, I will not be sharing the actual ‘stakes’ of my betting in £s. I will use unit level stakes where appropriate. For example, 1 unit per bet for win singles. Hence any profit and loss will be calculated in this way.

I tend to use Betfair for 90% of the bets and any profits calculated have had commission taken out. It should also be stated that although I write about, and research racing most weeks, indeed most days, I have averaged only one bet per day in this time frame.

I am going to split the results up in five main areas because there are five types of bets, I use.

1. Win Only bets

2. Each Way accumulators

3. Placepots

4. Exotic bets (e.g. exactas, trifectas)

5. In running trades

Let’s start with ………………

Win Only Bets

This is my core type of bet, as it is for most people, I’m sure.

On average I have around 3-Win bets a week. The only time of the year I do not bet is between Christmas and New Year, or when I am away on holiday.

All my win bets are Betfair based – usually the bets are placed at BSP.

The results have been as follows:

A solid start in terms of the fact I am in profit for this section. My win bets tend to be mid to higher prices, so the strike rate has been around one win in seven. I am comfortable betting these prices, always have been.

To make a decent profit I will need some of the longer priced horses to hit the mark and generally they do. Over this time frame, my biggest priced winner was BSP 25.00, the lowest was BSP 3.77.

Breaking it down further I have noticed that the better results have been with the higher prices:

To make a decent profit I will need some of the longer priced horses to hit the mark and generally they do. Over this time frame, my biggest priced winner was BSP 25.00, the lowest was BSP 3.77.

Breaking it down further I have noticed that the better results have been with the higher prices:

As you can see the higher priced runners have proved to be the best value. This trend has been something that I have seen before with other sets of my past results.

The message is clear for the future – stick to bigger prices!

Before moving on I should also say I have looked at other areas in terms of these win bets to see what, if any patterns have emerged in the last three years.

My record in Flat / AW results versus National Hunt is a resounding win to the Flat / AW. No surprises there for me, this is often the case.

The good thing is that 91% of my bets were on the level. Also, I did best in handicap sprints over 5f which has always been my favourite type of race to bet in. Another clear message there.

Each Way Accumulators

I love an each way double, and over the years they have provided me with some very nice wins.

I primarily bet each way doubles when betting any type of accumulator and in this time frame 104 of the 109 bets were just that. I had four each way trebles and one each way fourfold.

For the staking here I have calculated to 1 unit each way hence the stakes are double the number of bets at 218.

Here is the breakdown:

Overall, a profit, but I had only three each way doubles that saw both horses win. Fortunately, one such winning bet saw the horses priced at 7/1 and 9/1. That paid a tasty profit of 86.94.

In addition, I had enough selections where both were placed, otherwise this would have been an overall loss.

These types of bets are risky, which is why I sometimes wait three or four weeks to find what I perceive to be a decent opportunity. This is not a bet to ‘force’ – you need to be patient.

I will continue to use them as part of my betting arsenal in the years to come.

Placepots

The lure of the placepot! The potential of big returns for small stakes.

Over the years I have had a few big wins but of course several more losing pots. So how have I fared this time around?

The staking part of this is difficult to adjust in some ways as my placepots vary in terms of perms and overall cost. Hence, for this section I am simply sharing the number of placepots I had and the overall profit / loss.

Here are the overall findings:

The last three years have not been that good for my placepots! The simple truth is that, a) I have not had enough winning placepots, and b) those wins have not seen particularly big returns.

Have my placepot picks been worse recently than in the past? I don’t think so.

I have had a few near misses and with the placepot essentially one huge win changes the narrative. Is it a bet I will continue to use? Absolutely. Despite my ‘failings’ over the past three years my placepot record going back to the start of my betting has been very good.

I am hopeful a big win is around the corner ……. famous last words!

Exotic Bets

Most of these bets in the last three years have been reverse exactas, probably about 75% of them.

There have been a few Computer Straight Forecasts (around 20%), and a handful of trifectas.

Back in the late 90s and early 2000s I had a lot more of these types of bets due to stronger draw biases. Nowadays for these bets I play a few draw biases and target a few big handicaps where the exacta pool is likely to offer better value.

Onto the figures:

This is a positive state of affairs. Traditionally these bets have been ‘good’ to me and once again they have provided a decent profit. There were no winning trifectas but to be fair I only had 10 such bets. There seems no reason to change my approach when it comes to these bets.

In Running Trades

These bets are primarily on out and out-front runners. Front runners often trade much lower in running than their BSP even if they end up fading and finishing down the field. It is the only method I use when it comes to racing in play markets.

Here are the figures:

The second negative out of the five bet types. The frustrating fact is that 2022 turned a profit of 15.88. In contrast 2023 and 2024 were quite poor. Ultimately, I may need a re-think here as 2019-2021 saw me make a small loss then.

Overall, across the five bet types, the profit stands at +81.29 pts equating to roughly 27 points per year based on the unit staking shared. Considering I am roughly averaging one bet per day this is an OK profit.

Now this figure is slightly different in reality because my real-life staking does vary depending on the bet. However, this article is not about how much actual profit or loss I have made.

I suppose there were two main things I wanted to convey.

Firstly, how difficult it is to make decent money betting on the horses regardless of how much knowledge you have / how much time you put into it.

Secondly, I wanted to share my approach and how important it is to monitor your bets and react accordingly.

My Overall Conclusion and Future Plan

As punters we need to constantly evolve. If we don’t, we are likely to be left behind. My recent results are telling me a few things:

1. For win only bets stick even more to flat / AW racing than I have in the past. Perhaps I also need to increase my stakes in 5f handicaps which for 25 years have consistently given me the highest returns.

2. Focus more on bigger priced runners for win only bets. The downside of course is the losing runs, but it’s about value not how many wins you have and when you have them.

I write about VALUE all the time so you would have thought I would have learned that lesson by now!

3. Continue as before with each way doubles, and the placepot. However, as far as the placepot is concerned maybe I need to dig more deeply into my selection process and the perms I use. I cannot rely on the next big win digging me out of a negative situation.

I think I need to analyse properly which specific races are letting me down. If there is a clear pattern, then I can change my approach slightly.

4. Continue with exactas and the CSF in much the same way. Nothing really needs tweaking here.

5. Decide whether I am going to continue trading in running. 2019 to 2021 and 2022 to 2024 both made losses. I have long believed this is ‘easy’ money – perhaps I need to reassess this belief!

Betting is very individual. You need to follow a path that works for you. Everyone is different. Everyone has different strengths. I, like everybody else, need to focus more on my strengths. I also need to start studying my past placepots and dig more into ‘in-play’ ideas.

It is time to put everything into practice!

David Renham