BF update
After I wrote about beaten favourites I remembered an article that John Burke wrote for us back in 2020.
The system at the conclusion of the research is for National Hunt and is no longer profitable.
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But it gave me some ideas along with the suggestions mailed in by readers.
The first new thing I looked at was what jockey rode last time, when it was beaten.
I found a group of jockeys that would have been profitable on the last 5 years data and low and behold they also produced a profit so far this year, albeit not as big as previous years, if this is the best I can come up with I may start following the selections.
Next up I thought what about if a different jockey rides today.
So I looked at 'todays jockey hasnt ridden before' compared to 'today's jockey has ridden before'. Not much difference, with the selected jockeys and no previous rides was a bit more negative for all jockeys.
Then a readers suggestion, do BF's win more at certain tracks.
So again on the last 5 year data I looked at profitable tracks and came up with 20 that were profitable, but they were not profitable in 2025.
Next up, Peter wrote "what if you back only odds on losing bf. My thinking more money was lost on a odds on"
Sounded like a good idea, but minus 7% ROI with four out of six years losing.
John asked about previous course winners and previous distance winners.
In both cases it is more profitable to follow the horse with no previous course win and no previous distance win.
I'm thinking this is just because they are over bet and so the strike rate improves but no value
I tried no course win, no distance win and no going win, to try and find the value, but every year is a loser except this year (to date)
Next up Robert had some ideas.
What about the last time out finishing position.
Would you believe that if you backed every beaten favourite that finished 22nd you would have a 66% strike rate and a 228% ROI, but there were only three selections and that's just some quirke of the data 🤣
Last time finish position doesn't make much difference.
Finally for today two more of Robert's suggestions, which are change in distance and change in class.
A drop in class of any size is a positive, it doesn't get us into profit but it reduces losses by 4 percent.
Down in distance is more positive than up in distance, but is no better than same distance.
There are a lot of factors that reduce the losses and maybe we can combine some of those to make a worthwhile system.
I will have to set aside some time to do that, or maybe I will ask one of our team of experts to get on it. I'll keep you posted.
By the way there is some interest in the Steamers list and I think I can do some research to find out if it likely to be worthwhile, I'll update you as I progress.
It was a profit for FormHorse Select yesterday and there are still places at the introductory price - https://bluedelta.thrivecart.com/formhorse-select-monthly/
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Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
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