Cheltenham Festival 2025
The 2025 Cheltenham Festival gets underway on Tuesday 11th March with the feature event being the Champion Hurdle, a Grade 1 race over 2 miles, featuring the most skilled hurdlers in the world.
The opening day begins with the Supreme Novices Hurdle which in recent times has been won by such horses as Constitution Hill (2022), Shishkin (2020) and Altior (2016), all of which were trained by the legend that is Nicky Henderson.
The first named, Constitution Hill is the current odds-on favourite for this year’s Champion Hurdle.
In the first section of this coverage of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival we will take a look at each of the 28 races due to be run over the 4 days to see if the most recent 10 renewals offer up any snippets that we can use to our punting advantage.
Day 1 – Tues 11th March
1.20pm Supreme Novices Hurdle
The standout for this race based on the most recent decade is that the first three in the betting have accounted for 9 of the 10 winners. Allowing for those sharing the favourite, second fav and third fav positions totalled 33 runners and blindly backing them made a 14-point profit to SP and even better the Betfair SP brought in +22pts profit.
The best way to apply this is to try and keep the bets as close to the off as possible in case there is a late surge in the market.
2.00pm Arkle Challenge Trophy
This race attracts the crème de la crème of the Novice Chases and is run over close to 2 miles at a breakneck pace. In the last decade Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the renewals between them, but at the prices returned you would have made a loss of 4.46pts to SP blindly backing them.
A better return was to be had simply backing the jolly as these won 8 of the 10 and returned a level stake profit of +6 points to SP and marginally more, +6.98pts, to the Betfair SP.
2.40pm Ultima Handicap Chase
With one exception the last 10 renewals have been won by a horse that finished in the top 6 last time out. Corach Rambler had unseated his jockey prior to winning the race in 2022 and proved that was an anomaly by following up in 2023 before going onto to win the Grand National a few weeks later.
To be fair that initial stat would have covered the majority of runners, but it may help knock a few out of this year’s renewal.
Vintage Clouds at 28/1 in 2021 is also an outlier as all the other 9 recent winners went off with an SP of between 9/2 and 12/1 and blindly following that section of the betting would have returned a 25% ROI.
3.20 Close Brothers Mares Hurdle
The Willie Mullins yard used to dominate this race, and they have landed the winner on 4 of the last 10 running’s, but from 2017 until last year other trainers were responsible for saddling the winner. Last time out winners have won 7 of the most recent 10 and would have returned a level stake profit simply backing them all.
We could refine that angle by ignoring the jolly and concentrating on the runner’s 2nd to 4th in the market with a last time out win.
4.00 Unibet Champion Hurdle
9 of the last 10 renewals have been won by a trio of yards, namely Henderson, Mullins and De Bromhead, but blindly backing such runners would have resulted in a big loss as they often have multiple entries.
The simplest line of attack could be to concentrate on the jolly as 8 of the last 10 have obliged.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile
The most recent decade of winners has gone off between 7/2 and 80/1, with a couple of 33/1 winners thrown in to boot!
Gordon Elliott has won 3 of those renewals from 26 runners with a further 5 placing. Joseph O’Brien is also 2 from 10 so maybe concentrating on that duo of yards may home in on this year’s winner.
5.20 National Hunt Novice’s Chase
This race used to be confined to Amateur Jockeys only, but this year’s renewal has been opened up to the pro ranks and also changed to a handicap race.
With that in mind the previous running’s may have little bearing so we will swerve it this time around.
Day 2 – Weds 12th March
1.20 Turners Novice’s Hurdle
The market is usually spot on with this race as the top 5 in the betting have won all of the last 10 renewals. Willie Mullins has won the last 3 running’s but usually has multiple entries and backing them all blindly would have resulted in a loss.
There doesn’t seem to be a standout angle so maybe a race to watch whilst we wait for better punting opportunities.
2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
The jolly has won 6 of the most recent 10 renewals, and the other 4 were towards the top of the market. Quite surprisingly all 10 of the second favourites were beaten.
The third favourite fared much better with a trio of wins, so if the market on the day shows those factors clearly maybe a split stakes approach on the 1st and third in the market is the way to go?
2.40 Coral Cup Hurdle
In recent Festivals the Dan Skelton yard has done well the handicap hurdles and Langer Dan was trained to perfection to win the last two renewals.
Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott have also won a duo a piece in the latest decade so maybe having a flutter on their runners this time around is the way to go.
3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country
This year’s renewal has been amended to handicap status and therefore another where the past renewals are unlikely to have any bearing, so moving on.
4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase
A race that in recent times has been dominated by the top 4 in the market, although on 3 of the latest 10 have been won by the jolly.
Backing the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the betting found the other 7 winners and made a level stake profit of 71% ROI. Nicky Henderson and Henry De Bromhead have a trio of winners apiece and both yards have been profitable to follow in recent renewals.
4.40 Grand Annual Chase
Eight of the most recent decade of renewals have been won by horses that went off at double figure prices, including the last 4. A win on their last run would have been a route to the poor house as only 1 from 40 went on to capture this prize.
The race usually attracts 20 or so runners so maybe go and put the kettle on and have a brew while it takes place this time around.
5.20 Champion Bumper
A race that Irish Champion trainer Willie Mullins targets every year, often with multiple entries. In fact, he has won 5 of the last 10 but with 54 runners you would have just about broke even backing them blindly to Betfair SP.
Simply backing the first and second favourites would have yielded 7 of the most recent 10 renewals and made a healthy +45% ROI to SP and even more to BFSP.
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