The Pep Talk – The Cheltenham Festival

Turners Novices Hurdle

Final Demand laid down a marker for this race when clearing away to win the Grade 1 over 2m6f at the Dublin Racing Festival. As good as that performance was, I do think it was a weak race. On top of that, I’m just not convinced he’s a classic Turners horse. I like a horse with a bit of speed for this and I wouldn’t be convinced Final Demand has bundles of that.

The New Lion is the one for me here.

You’ll struggle to find a more straightforward novice – you could put him anywhere in a race. He settles and jumps like an old hand. He’s unbeaten and has got better with every run. He waltzed past Beliano on hurdles debut, who has won twice since and the form of his second win is working out even better, with 4 of the 5 horses in behind him winning since. I’ll admit that I’m not sure the form of his Challow win is anything to shout about for a Grade 1, but still, to win at the top level in the manner with which he did it is impressive.

He has that perfect blend of staying power with tactical speed and it’s the latter that gives him the edge over his rivals in a race like the Turners. The way he goes about his business is that of a very talented horse and I think he’s very much one for now, whereas the likes of Final Demand probably have a bit more maturing to do, but I could be wrong.

There has been some market support for Kawaboomga, but I’d be a little surprised if he was up to it, mainly based on the fact that if he thought he already had one for this race, I doubt JP McManus would have paid so much for The New Lion.

The Yellow Clay is also a good horse and I would rate him as a significant danger if he were to run. However, he looks like he’ll stay all day, and the Albert Bartlett looks a significantly weaker contest than this, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran there.

Recommended Bet

Back The New Lion @ 3/1

Mares Chase

There hasn’t been one winning favourite of this race since its inception in 2021 and even though there haven’t been big priced winners, it shows it’s not the easiest race at the festival to pick the winner of. I’m finding it quite easy to pick holes in the horses at the head of the market.

Dinoblue has not looked like the same horse this season, she looks laboured. She beat Allegorie De Vassy over two miles last time (who herself is not at all consistent and has been beaten in this race previously) and has been beaten at the last two festivals.

Bioluminescence would be an intriguing runner as she looks pretty good. The form of her second to Dancing City when conceding weight reads very well. But she’s a big mare and stamina looks her game; Gavin Cromwell has also stated that she needs soft ground, so a dry week in Gloucester may mean she doesn’t even turn up.

Only By Night is a great jumper, but I wouldn’t be sure about her stamina over this distance as she looked to be tying up at Exeter when they went a solid gallop over two miles.

Limerick Lace is last year’s winner, but she too hasn’t looked in anywhere near the same form as this time last year. Having been comprehensively beaten in both starts this season, I’d struggle to back her.This race has yet to be won by a British trainer, but Lucy Wadham could break the duck.

Her extremely likeable mare, Telepathique, is worthy of her spot in this lineup. She is a terrific jumper and has shown that attribute on multiple occasions this season. A career-best last time, she beat Brides Hill, which is strong form, in a Listed race at Huntingdon despite jumping to her left the whole way.

Now on a rating of 148, this will be the race for her. I love how she gets on with things and sets her stall out early, jumping boldly from the front and playing catch me if you can.

They could struggle to get her back if she’s allowed her own time of things on the front end and given the form she’s in, I think she’s well worth a bet at double figures.

Recommended Bet

Back Telepathique @ 14/1 Each Way

Festival Pointers

It’s a shame that a couple of the horses I really fancied are now out of the festival, The Jukebox Man and Kateira, but that’s the nature of ante post punting sometimes unfortunately.

I don’t have any more bets at this stage as a lot of the markets won’t change a whole bunch before the day now, but as it’s the final edition before Cheltenham, I want to give a few more thoughts on some of the races which I haven’t touched upon.

No matter what horses run in the Champion Hurdle, I’ll be backing State Man not to place.

He was a shadow of his former self at Leopardstown at Christmas, then after Lossiemouth came down in the Irish Champion Hurdle, I thought he was out on his feet. He crawled up to the line and considering how far ahead he was of the rest of the field turning for home, he only ended up winning by under 7 lengths.

Unfortunately, I think his best days are well behind him.

At this stage, I am against Ballyburn. His engine is getting him out of trouble and I’m just not sure he’s going to get away with it at Cheltenham over fences this time. The three miles will help him, but I think he’s going to get shorter in the betting as Townend will be on and there will be enough opposition to take him on.

Jonbon is a tricky one, as I think it is completely fair to say he doesn’t produce his absolute best at Cheltenham. However, he has won at the track twice and I don’t think there is an argument that he isn’t the best horse in the race, in all departments. I actually think he could be shorter than he is now, even at 4/5. But this race has a habit of producing a turn up and if I’m piling in on him, I’m waiting until the day.

I don’t think I’ll be trying to be too clever in the Triumph as the market probably has this right.

Lulamba is the exciting up and comer; East India Dock has been there and done it at Cheltenham. It would be a surprise if anything other than one of those two wins.

The Gold Cup should be a race to savour – watch Galopin Des Champs claim his Gold Cup hat trick.

He has beaten everything and barring an accident he’ll win.

Something must be placed though and there will be some big prices knocking around, especially if Fact To File runs. I’d be keen on L’Homme Presse getting a place.

I’ve not looked into the handicaps much yet, but one thing I will say is that I wouldn’t be touching Jeriko Du Reponet with someone else’s money. He’s a shocking favourite for the Pertemps. It seems people have latched on to his run at Exeter where he finished third, thinking it’s a plot job for the Pertemps.

He’s been a comfortably beaten favourite in his last three runs, and he’s not looked like challenging in any of them, let alone win. He was having a chasing campaign that went awry at the first outing, and this is very much clutching at straws.

He’s been upped drastically in trip, and I think all they’re trying to do is build his confidence back up and get him enjoying himself again. He’s not a bet.

That’s all from me before the big week so I hope there’s some useful information in there!

I’ll be having more bets throughout the week once we know the final fields, so join my Big Race Tips if you want to get those as well!

Best of luck!

Alex Peperell