May Trainers to Follow on the Flat

Plenty is written about which trainers are quick out of the blocks with their strings fit and ready to rumble in the early part of the flat and national hunt seasons. Richard Fahey and Nigel Twiston-Davies are two such trainers and they can still be exploited to make a profit, albeit that the bookies are cramping the value year on year.

Similarly, but less popular, are trainers that finish the season well.

This can be a good angle on the flat as most of the Classics and the big blue riband meetings will have been and gone and the big guns will have been put away for a winter break. However, whilst concentrating on those months that bookend a season can be profitable, there is plenty of mileage in month-specific betting. The reason for this is that trainers will target specific meetings that take place in the same months every year, or they may be slower to bring their string to hand with their runners needing two or three races to get to race fit.

Whatever the reason, I know a few people who back certain trainers’ runners in certain months and they do so with quite a bit of success.

With that in mind I am going to take a look at which trainers historically do well in May, about 4 to 5 weeks into the flat season. As always, I will be using Horse Race Base and searching a huge database of race results from the month of May to see who, and under what specific conditions, we should be following in May.

The plan is to dig quite deep and hopefully come up with a fair number of specific angles that, when pooled together, should see plenty of action, and hopefully plenty of winners in the month of May for the season that is upon us.

Sir Michael Stoute

This man needs no introduction and he is also a trainer that does well in the month of May, more than in the early part of the flat season in April.

His record since 2012 reads a very healthy 88 winners from 406 runners at a strike rate of 22%. Unfortunately, the bookies usually dive for cover whatever he runs and backing all those runners would have seen a very small loss, even at Betfair SP.

My job is to weed out those losers and see if there are is a specific type of horse, or a specific type of race where we can make a profit from the Sir Michael Stoute runners in May.

The first thing we find is that 57 of the 88 winners had already raced either once or twice that season.

Those making their seasonal debut in May produced 31 winners, but they did so at a strike rate of 17%.

In comparison, those with one or two runs under their belts have a strike rate of 26%, and they are the ones that realise a profit (albeit very small).

Concentrating on those 57 winners who had raced in the current season, there are a couple of potential angles.

The first is race distance. 38 winners have come over distances of 1m 2f or further at a highly respectable strike rate of 27% and now we see a decent profit of £31.19 at Betfair SP and an ROI of greater than 20%.

The other angle is to concentrate solely on those runners at York and Goodwood.

They have a combined record of 12-39 (31% strike rate) and generate a profit of £20.13 at Betfair SP. These will be the same races at the same meetings that he targets in May and this time the ROI is above 50%.

Combining the two angles, gives us 9-27 (33% strike rate) and a profit of £23.04 at Betfair SP at an ROI of 85%.

System 28: Sir Michael Stoute runners at Goodwood and York, racing over 1m 2f or further having their second or third start of the season in May.

William Haggas

William Haggas is one of my favourite trainers around and I have done well over the years by following his runners at specific festivals (the York ones in particular) and he makes it on to our list of trainers to follow in May.

Since 2012 he has saddled no fewer than 86 May winners from 398 runners at a strike rate of 22% and those runners return a profit of £18.83 at Betfair SP.

All 86 winners were aged 2yo to 4yo.

He has sent out a few older runners in May, but these have a combined record of 0-21 so we can strike a line through these.

Winners come in all race classes from Class 1 at the highest level all the way down to Class 6 in the basement.

However, whilst he gets plenty of winners at Class 5 and below, they more or less break even and if we concentrate on Class 1 to class 4 races, we maintain the overall profit, but increase the ROI.

So, we are looking at Haggas runners aged 2yo to 4yo in class 1 to class 4 events in May.

We now have the following set of results:

That in itself is a decent set of results, but as always, we must try and improve on them by digging a little deeper.

One simple angle is to back his 2yo runners in Class 1 to Class 4 races in May.

They have a record of 10-35 (29% strike rate) and return a profit of £16.89 at Betfair SP and an ROI of 48%.

Another angle, which will produce a fair number of qualifiers is to back his 2yo to 4yo runners in class 1 to class 4 races over 5f to 7f.

That angle generates 25 winners from 103 runners and a profit of £32.06 at Betfair SP and an ROI of 31%.

That will give you more action than just backing the 2yo runners, but it will include that subset seeing as most 2yo races are over these trips.

System 37: William Haggas 2yo runners in Class 1 to Class 4 races in May.

System 38: William Haggas 2yo to 4yo runners in Class 1 to Class 4 races over 5f to 7f in May.

Ralph Beckett

Our first two trainers will have most of their qualifiers running in non-handicap races and I am a much bigger fan of handicaps from a betting perspective. They tend to have bigger fields and by their very nature are more competitive and offer a great deal more value.

Unearthing one that is well handicapped is a puzzle that most of us tipsters are addicted to solving. With that in mind, we switch our attention to a trainer that does well in handicap races in May, and that trainer is Ralph Beckett.

All the handicap winners since 2012 in the month of May have been aged between 3yo and 5yo and that is a good place to start.

That gives us 35 winners at a nice strike rate of 21.6%, a profit of £98.69 at exchange starting prices and a healthy ROI just over 60%.

On looking closer there is lots to like about these results.

First of all, winners and profits have come from Class 2 races all the way down to Class 6 (no Class 1 runners since 2012) so it does not matter what grade of race we are looking at.

Second, the same comments apply to the age restrictions with a healthy split of profit and winners in 3yo+, 4yo+ and 3yo only handicaps.

Most of the winners are 3yo’s but the 4yo and 5yo runners also chip in with a fair few winners themselves and most definitely add to the bottom-line profits.

There is also a near even split between the boys and the girls with the colts and geldings, fillies and mares equally profitable.

Field size also seems largely irrelevant in terms of where the winners can be found.

If there is one angle to produce slightly better results, it is race distance.

24 of the 31 winners were racing from 5f to 1m 2f. Those racing over further than 1m 2f produced 11 winners but at a slightly reduced strike rate and a poorer return.

Factoring in race distance we are left with the following set of results:

The ROI is now a fantastic 89% and the P/L has largely remained the same. It’s a pretty simple angle, but a profitable one nonetheless.

System 68: Ralph Beckett runners aged 3yo to 5yo in 5f to 1m 2f handicaps in May.

Ger Lyons

We head over to Ireland next and one trainer that has been making a name for himself in the last few years, Ger Lyons.

52 winners from 304 May runners since 2012 sees a strike rate on the low side at 17% compared to the other trainers we have covered so far.

However, those results can be marked up when you consider his May runners were 2-23 in 2012 and 2-35 in 2013.

Since then he has achieved a strike rate of at least 16% each season in May compared to those two poor years (9% and 6% strike rates respectively).

Concentrating on 2014 onwards, his strike rate is just shy of 20%.

All the winners were aged 2yo to 7yo.

He has saddled a few oldies but none of them have hit the back of the net.

We have winners in both handicaps and non-handicaps, but the best angle is to concentrate on those ridden by Colin Keane and Gary Carroll who have combined for 47 of those 48 winners.

In doing so, we now have a strike rate in excess of 20% and a profit of £99.52 at Betfair SP.

Next, we need to concentrate on Irish racecourses only.

He has sent a few over the water to some of the May festivals but without any joy, or just 1 winner to be precise.

That leaves us looking at the following results since 2014 for Ger Lyons runners aged 7yo or younger, ridden by Colin Keane or Gary Carroll and racing in Ireland:

That is a solid set of numbers and winners have come across all age groups and in handicaps and non-handicaps and across a variety of race distances.
However, there is one micro angle lurking in there and that is those making their seasonal debut.

These runners are 17-64 and, quite astonishingly, are responsible for all the profit:

System 49: Ger Lyons runners at Irish racecourses, making their seasonal debut in May, ridden by Colin Keane or Gary Carroll and aged 2yo to 7yo.

For our Gold members Nick takes a closer look at two popular flat trainers and unearths the lucrative side of backing runners from the more prominent stables.

You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here…
https://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

If you'd like to bet alongside Dr Nick at all the big meetings this year, check out his Big Race Tips service which made 692 points profit since January 2016 – Click Here.