At the start of October (4th) 2022, I started to post daily selections for OCP Gold and Platinum members, that were from a suite of Test Systems that I thought might give us some nuggets to take forward as Live systems in the future.
It has been an extremely interesting few months, for me at least!
I started with 18 systems but have added a 19th that went live for the start of the Turf season in Ireland.
I have also added a few more (30-33) for the tail end of the NH and A/W seasons that will continue now for another year and will replace those that I drop due to them not performing to expectations.
This review will primarily concentrate on the NH and A/W systems that have been active for the last 6 months.
These are the overall results for systems 1 – 19:
It is very clear what has not worked and whilst some of the systems (A/W Sires and Eased Chase) tend to have an occasional BIG winner and could easily make back those losses and more, they are not worth persevering with for this experimental portfolio. Others have just not lived up to expectations (Hurdle Rating and LTO Speed plus A/W Pace in particular).
However, in my mind, after having over two thousand bets and only being down by less than 35 points, says to me there are definitely things to take out of it.
So, let's explore them, namely OC02 and 03, OC13 and OC17 (we will ignore those Turf systems that have had bets late last year or early this, they will be reviewed in 6 months’ time):
The Chase Ratings are very consistent, but the returns are fairly low. We can enhance them though (see below) and they are definitely worth taking forward.
OC13 and 17 have been tweaked late in the season to try and remove some big drawdowns, so I feel the above numbers are actually understated.
We can see though, there will be swings by looking at the monthly numbers:
October in particular was poor, but then October can be a very tricky month for NH. Previous October returns for each of the systems have seen profits though, so it is not a case of simply not betting in that month, but perhaps extra caution could be used?
I guess that is each punters own call.
Another angle I have looked at throughout the process is price. I have backed each system selection at €1 to win, via The Bet Engine (TBE), just a few seconds before the off time (so as near to BSP as I can get) and for certain systems, I have also bet a further €5 if the price was 5.0 or less at my bet time.
For some systems, that was a great strategy, for others not so good. For OC02 and OC03, it worked very well:
That is an extra 16+ points (with a bigger stake!), with a great Strike Rate (39%) and more than adequate ROI over 6 months.
The same can be applied to OC17:
Another superb addition to the profits and a very reassuring Strike Rate and ROI. All extremely easy to do in TBE.
So, four proven systems, a simple staking strategy, easy to set up in TBE and 160 points profit in 6 months. What's not to like? One thing is for certain, my stakes on these will not be €1 and €5 next time around!
Come late summer, I will be prompting my members again to consider a BOT to place their bets automatically. I will be more than happy to publish my set up and I know The Bet Engine team will also be delighted to assist. Obviously, they could still place their bets manually but there will be a lot on certain days and how would they manage the price dependent bets?
They do however have six months to mull it over!
Kieran
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