Racecourse Templates Revisited
There are 59 licensed racecourses in Great Britain, each with its unique characteristics. Except for Chelmsford and Ffos Las, all the courses date back to 1927 or earlier, maturating their own distinct features such as shape, size, cambers, gradients, undulations, right and left-hand travel (including ambidexterity), altitude, and various surface types.
No other country in the racing world has our course diversity, but has this feature been truly factored into our betting decisions?
TRH would suggest not, personal experience confirms a serious lack of learning in this regard even from seasoned pundits. Winning or losing in professional sport often comes down to the smallest of margins – a winning or losing bet is repeatedly determined by those small margins. Seasoned bettors to pundits tend to focus on the form of the horse, trainer, jockey and the price, mistakenly there is scant consideration for the the course title. If accepting the opening premise we must classify the course or its inherent nature into help or hindrance categories, if the course negatively impacts upon the bet, we stand down and wait for another opportunity.
For example, a small nimble speedy juvenile suited to a fast 5f has two entries, one at Beverley and the other at Catterick – which race gives the best percentage chance of success? Disregarding opinions, mathematics and common sense gives us the answer. The Beverley 5f is uphill all the way and takes a lot of getting, particularly if the word soft is in the going title. In total contrast the Catterick 5f is downhill all the way but with an extreme downhill first furlong, clearly enabling the small nimble type and not the large galloping sort. These two courses could not be more different, but how many of us actually know that?
The configuration of a racecourse should be a prime consideration before wagering. Every racehorse that has ever been born has its own optimum conditions that have been genetically predetermined. Our task is to align a bet to the racecourse and surface whenever possible, failing that we seek conditions to suit.
On Thursday TRH will be producing a Racecourse Template for Lingfield AW. Before looking at any of the runners and riders, there is a need to see what mathematics are contained within the 6 various race types.
LINGFIELD Winning Favourites (last 5 years)
Non-handicaps Handicaps
2yo 56 120 47% -3.91 18 42 43% +4.33
3yo 103 199 52% +5.89 125 412 30% -88.16
4yo+ 62 146 52% +22.94 237 792 30% -133.94
TOTAL 224 445 50% +24.93 380 1246 30% -217.77
How many of our readers were aware of these figures?
One could back winning favourites blindly in non-handicaps to level stakes and make a 25pt profit. Half of all the favourites in non-handicaps win their races! Just imagine what a modicum of filtration with best pricing could do to those figures? Is there any chance of the figures suffering fatigue? They have not done so in the past 10 years, and we can see no reason why they would in the coming years! By the way, the sample size is big giving the numbers a robust and trusted look.
Suffice it to say TRH never considers wagering until acknowledging what the betting landscape is telling us at that particular racecourse. This is the inherent beauty of the Racecourse Templates because they almost exclusively deal in mathematics – not opinion! These betting landscapes are uniquely different and change dramatically from course to course, revealing profitable and negative areas.
Racecourse Templates not only represent the perfect starting point to a day's racing, but puts the bettor into the box seat, with all things contextual, pertinent and relevant at their fingertips!
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
