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I missed the Mel Gee 10 year celebration webinar, maybe you did too?
If so there is a replay and I have it running in the background now, who says men can't multi task.
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I'm going to dip into the postbag (inbox) today and share some recent correspondence of note.
First off there was our own Matt Russell who shared this insight about the longest losing runs calculator.
I have a system where qualifiers are generally around 14 to 28/1 at morning ISP prices. I'm nearly 500 bets in now and a little while back I ran the data to see what the expected longest losing run was now that I had a good bit of data and a fairly settled strike rate. I ran it on the On Course calculator and it came up with 81 losses (it's an 8% strike rate system). To that point my longest losing run had been 48.
Anyway I had a winner the day after I did that, back on the 6th October. Since then it's drawn a blank and as of last night it sat on? Yep, a run of exactly 81 losses. First bet today was Valentine Boy in the 1:50 at Kempton. It won at 28/1, 50 BSP! Talk about timing!
Don't you just love probability sometimes!
I think it says a lot about Matt that he had the confidence in his systems to continue betting all through that 81 losing streak. Obvously a 50/1 winner doesn't cover the 81 losers but I understand that the system is showing a nice long term profit.
Could you follow a system with an 8% strike rate?
The second message I want to mention is on staking.
I've not been a big fan of any sort of recovery staking, preferring to increase my stakes when my bank hits a milestone.
But I'm happy to hear from others that make it work and maybe a short priced service like Dan's Shorties is the ideal tipster for a staking plan.
Mails like this one from Rich about his membership of Dan's Shorties make me rethink…
I use a large bank and progressive staking so I can both recover losses and hit daily goal (2 points per day, carried forward daily) at any winner. If 3 consecutive losses I switch to recovery of (total) stakes, then at a winner start progression again.
As I say, you need a large bank so that you can get through the draw-downs but thus far I'm well in profit overall.
If you'd like to check a system on the Dan's Shortie's selections yourself this page has every selections since the service started proofing in August.
https://memberarea.co.uk/results?id=123
If you want to use the longest losing run calculator that's here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/longest-losing-run-calculator/
All the best
Darren Power
PS This month's sponsor is FormHorse Select, Paul Slattery won our tipping competition with a strong profit and a huge strike rate – Click Here to lock in the introductory price
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