Well racing continues behind closed doors. We have now had Royal Ascot, the Derby & Oaks and Newmarket’s July Festival. To all intents and purposes British racing has caught up with all its major races.
There are also encouraging signs that spectators could be allowed back to British racecourses sooner rather than later.
Glorious Goodwood Winners
Goodwood is hoping to get government support for allowing some people to attend the upcoming Qatar Goodwood Festival, albeit it will only be up to 5000 people attending made up of Goodwood members, four owners per runner and few sponsors. If it does happen and the trial is a success it will no doubt be rolled at other racecourses.
There’s plenty of high-class horse racing for us to enjoy during the month. Not only do we have ‘Glorious Goodwood’ but there’s York’s Ebor Festival. Over the Irish Sea it’s the Galway Festival. Now that’s one summer festival that will suffer from a lack of a crowd.
In last months ‘Acorns’ I looked at two jockeys who seem to excel over certain courses & distances. This month my attention switches to ‘Glorious Goodwood’ and those trainers who do well at this unique track.
Goodwood is located on the South Downs and on a sunny day there is no better place in the UK to watch horse racing. On the reverse side given its proximity to the English Channel it’s prone to sea mist and if the wind is in the wrong direction it can be a miserable place.
Goodwood is a unique right-handed racecourse. Given its switchback nature, severe undulations and sharp bends it can often pay to follow horses that have previous form at the track. The sprint course is one of the fastest in the country.
The round course is tricky and provides many ‘hard luck stories’ as hold up horses regularly meet traffic problems in the straight, particularly when racing on the inside towards the far rail.
The five-day Qatar Goodwood Festival or as it more famously known ‘Glorious’ Goodwood is one of the highlights of the British summer racing.
The highlights of the festival are the Group 1 Sussex Stakes one of the best mile races of the season.
The Group 1 Nassau Stakes for fillies & mares over 1m 2f, the Goodwood Cup, for the stayers, and one of the biggest betting races of the summer the Goodwood Stewards Cup over 6f.
Qatar Goodwood Festival Stats
As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.
To keep the stats as relevant as possible I have looked at the results from 2015 to 2019.
The results below contain 175 winners from 2224 runners 537 placed.
Let’s begin by looking at some general stats from the meeting.
Fate of the Favourites
Surprisingly favourites have been profitable to follow at Glorious Goodwood and have performed 21% better than market expectations.
Breaking those results down by non-handicap & handicap races.
Not so surprisingly non-handicap favourites have the much better win strike rate and are profitable but backing handicap favourites has also been profitable.
Summary: It’s been good meeting for favourite backers in recent seasons.
Summary: It makes sense to focus on those horses at the front end of the market – 11/1 & under. Those returned 12/1 & bigger do win races at the meeting but they don’t provide punters with much in the way of value.
Goodwood Qatar Festival Trainer Stats
So, which trainers seem to target the meeting with their horses? Here’s the winners table. I have only included trainers that have had three or more winners:
Starting from the top Yorkshire based trainer Mark Johnston loves to have runners at Goodwood but as you can see from his stats he does throw plenty of darts at the board.
Breaking his results down by non-handicap & handicap races:
Not much difference between the two types of race.
Looking at his results by race distance and race class.
The trainer’s runners over 5f have been profitable, as have those in races over 1m 4f & 1m 6f.
Class wise most of the Mark Johnston runners at the Goodwood festival have been in Class 2 races and they have provided all of his profit.
Given the track is a tricky one to ride it worth looking at the jockeys he books for his rides at the meeting.
All of the profit has come from just three jockeys: Silvestre De Sousa, James Doyle & William Buick.
They have provided the following set of results:
That looks a good angle for Mark Johnston at the meeting.
Looking at the yearly breakdown, four profitable years out of the last five is good and plenty of value to be had looking at the A/E stat.
System 69 – Back Mark Johnston trained runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival ridden by Silvestre De Sousa, James Doyle & William Buick.
Going back to the trainer’s runners over 1m 4f/1m6f. Five of his winners were racing in the same class of race as their last one and produced the following results.
System 68 – Back Mark Johnston trained runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival running in races of 12-14f that ran in the same Class as last time.
A third and final angle for the trainer’s runners at the meeting is those in races over 5f.
System 67- Back Mark Johnston trained runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival running in races over 5f that are running in the same class as their last race or up one or down one.
Next trainer on the Goodwood Festival winners list is Richard Hannon Jnr
Digging deeper into his results we find that by adding these three simple filters:
- Age: 3yo & 4yo
- Odds SP: 12/1 & under
- Last Time Out Placing: First four
That angle found 62% of his winners from just 18% of his total runners.
System 66 – Back Richard Hannon Jnr runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival aged three or four, which finished in the first four on their last start and are sent off 12/1 & under.
Sir Michael Stoute
Newmarket based trainer Sir Michael Stoute is third on the winner’s leader board. He hasn’t had the volume of runners as the likes of Mark Johnston & Richard Hannon Jnr have had in recent years.
Digging into those results further and adding the following two filters:
- Sex of Horse: Male
- Odds SP: 9/2 & under
Has provided the following results:
That’s 90% of his winners from 34% of his total runners.
System 65 – Back Sir Michael Stoute trained male runners only at the Qatar Goodwood Festival sent off 9/2 & under.
Other Trainers to Note
French trained horses are always worth a second look at the Goodwood Festival and any saddled by Francois Rohaut & Freddie Head are especially worth noting.
System 64 – Back Francois Rohaut & Freddie Head trained runners Qatar Goodwood Festival.
Here are three more trainers whose runners need respecting at the meeting.
Three of Roger Varian’s five winners at the meeting came in Class 3 races.
System 63 – Back Roger Varian trained runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival in Class 3 races only.
Three of John Quinn’s four winners came over 5f.
System 62 – Back John Quinn trained runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival racing over 5f only.
Six of John Gosden’s eight winners at the meeting had won their last start.
System 61 – Back John Gosden trained runners at the Qatar Goodwood Festival runners that had won their previous start.
Like many methods, the above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.
This could especially be the case this year which is a bit of a unique season due to coronavirus.
Until next time.