Cheltenham Festival – The Bets

Arkle Chase

Four of the last seven renewals have gone the way of Willie Mullins and if Ferny Hollow hadn’t suffered an injury, I think it would likely have been five of the last eight going back to Closutton. The Irish Champion trainer certainly doesn’t have a bad substitute in Blue Lord, but I don’t think he’s on the same level as his stablemate. I also don’t think he would have beaten Riviere D’etel at the Dublin Racing Festival had she jumped the last ok. She was only beaten slightly further by the aforementioned Ferny Hollow, but I feel he had a bit left in the tank. I’m just slightly underwhelmed by the Irish challenge now, and I think Alan King holds the ace.

Edwardstone is absolutely rock solid, I’m not sure there are any chinks in his armour when it comes to this race. His wealth of experience is only a good thing, the track is fine, he’s won on ground ranging from good to heavy, he stays the trip strongly, jumps well and all field sizes seem to come alike to him. Being so tractable, I don’t think it really matters how the race pans out tactically either.

His last three RPR’s of 164 are better than anything else in the field and even though he’s now favourite, it is entirely justified.

Recommended Bet

Back Edwardstone @ 2/1

Ultima Handicap Chase & Kim Muir

I’m really hoping David Pipe runs one, if not both these horses at the festival. The first one of his I like is Remastered, who was fifth in the National Hunt Chase last season, won a Grade 2 over three miles and came down when mounting a strong looking challenge in the Ladbrokes Trophy. He’s actually been dropped a pound to 145 following a couple of what were still good, runs at Haydock. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t have a big pot in him off this mark. His connections have always thought highly of him, he’s even been touted as a potential Gold Cup runner (that’s a bit too ambitious in my eyes). He jumps boldly which certainly helps around Cheltenham and he has a couple of options.

Gericault Roque is the other horse of David Pipe’s that I’m keen on. He’s finished runner up three times in a row in handicaps now, but to some progressive and well-handicapped rivals, so I think it’s just very unlucky for Gericault Roque. He’s improving with each run and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his head in front over staying trips. His mark of 133 is low for a festival handicap, so whether he will scrape in at the bottom of the weights only time will tell. But if he does, he can go well again.

I’m backing both horses Non Runner No Bet in both the Ultima and the Kim Muir. David Pipe has won the former race three times and the latter twice, so he’s no stranger to running them in these contests.

Recommended Bets

Back Remastered @ 16/1 Each Way (Ultima – NRNB) & 12/1 Each Way (Kim Muir – NRNB)

Back Gericault Roque @ 16/1 Each Way (Ultima – NRNB) & 16/1 Each Way (Kim Muir – NRNB)

Champion Hurdle

Unless something unforeseen happens, only two horses can win the Champion Hurdle this year. Honeysuckle or Appreciate It. The unbeaten mare has beaten all before her and in truth for a male to concede her 7lbs is a tremendously difficult task.

But when thinking about the race from a betting perspective, would Appreciate It have won the last six races that Honeysuckle has claimed? Yes, I think he probably would have. I don’t think she’s faced anything of his calibre.

It clearly hasn’t all been plain sailing given he was supposed to be going chasing this season. But it was muted towards the back end of the last campaign that he could be a Champion Hurdle horse. I’m not at all concerned about him going to Cheltenham first time up, given how prolific Mullins is at doing it. He was so good last year, and his best performance came at the track when bolting up in the Supreme by 24 lengths. If Honeysuckle is to beat him, I think she’ll have to produce her best ever performance.

Recommended Bet

Back Appreciate It @ 5/1 (4/1 NRNB)

Ballymore

This race has been a bit tricky to assess for the majority of the season, because it’s been a little tricky determining what is going to run. But with the way Dysart Dynamo races, he may well be too keen for the Supreme let alone the Ballymore, and I just can’t see Willie Mullins not having a live chance in the Ballymore. Therefore, I can’t see Sir Gerhard running anywhere else other than the Ballymore.

Last season’s Champion Bumper winner has looked mainly about speed, but after his latest win I’m very confident he’ll have the required stamina to take this.

He jumped poorly for half the race at Leopardstown, which was strange considering how well he jumped on hurdling debut, but he was still fairly safe despite not always being fluent. But the way he continued to lengthen in the straight was striking, putting more distance between himself and Three Stripe Life, with the others trailing in way behind. Sir Gerhard is a really talented individual and he’s got more class than everything else here in my view.

Ruby Walsh has ridden him in work, and I saw a quote of him saying “this is some taxi” and he wouldn’t exactly be someone to get overly bullish about a horse too often!

I’m taking the Non Runner No Bet compensation for this one, just in case, as it’s the sensible play given, he realistically does have other options.

Recommended Bet

Back Sir Gerhard @ 9/4 (NRNB)

Coral Cup

Nicky Henderson has a tremendous recent record in the Coral Cup. He sent out the winner of the race in both the 2019 and 2020 renewals, he had the runner up and the fifth in 2021 and the fourth in 2018. Once again, I think he’s got a really good chance in the shape of Fils D’oudairies.

He moved from Joseph O’Brien’s yard for this season and ran a blinder on his first outing for Henderson. Very fresh on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot in January, he raced a bit too keenly, but that should act as a perfect prep to blow the cobwebs away. Still going strongly into the straight, he just couldn’t sustain the gallop after the second last, but I loved how he stayed on again without being given a hard time whatsoever. It was a supremely well-handicapped rival who beat him that day and despite going up 3lbs to a mark of 141, I think there could be plenty more improvement to be seen from Fils D’oudairies considering he’s only had three outings over hurdles. Chasing just wasn’t his thing last season and he didn’t shape particularly well over a fence, but he looks far more at home over the smaller obstacles.

Recommended Bet

Back Fils D’oudairies @ 16/1 Each Way (12/1 Each Way NRNB)

Pertemps Final

Fergal O’Brien had a big hope for this contest last season with Imperial Alcazar. He had won a qualifier at Warwick and went up 8lbs ahead of Cheltenham, but historically winners of qualifiers struggle to replicate those efforts in the final. This year I think O’Brien has played it perfectly with Alaphilippe.

A Grade 2 winner on his first try at three miles over hurdles last season, Alaphilippe was then fifth in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. Not then seen until January, he finished fifth in a qualifier for this, which gets him into the race. He cruised into it, getting to the second last practically on the bridle. Upsides at the last, he completely blew up on the run in and weakened into fifth but given that was his first run in ten months, he was entitled to need it. The way he went through the race was really encouraging and the fact he’s been dropped 2lbs to 138 is a bonus. Based on that run I think he’s got a massive chance off his new rating.

Recommended Bet

Back Alaphilippe @ 10/1 Each Way (NRNB)

Stayers Hurdle

The dynamic around this race has chopped and changed for the majority of this season. Klassical Dream and Champ in particular produced great performances before underwhelming next time and last year’s winner, Flooring Porter, has yet to win in three starts since. This race doesn’t tend to suit the real strong travellers that win their races by their power on the bridle, which is why I don’t think it’ll suit Klassical Dream or Champ. It generally doesn’t suit front runners either, so Flooring Porter did very well to claim the title last year.

The one that has been completely forgotten about is Thyme Hill. He’s never been out of the places in Britain, with his only blip coming when flopping in France in November. But he put that behind him when second to Champ in the Long Walk Hurdle. Thyme Hill is versatile, is a course winner and was an unlucky fourth in a terrific Albert Bartlett when short of room twice behind Monkfish, Latest Exhibition and Fury Road. I think the way the Stayers Hurdle is shaping up will really suit him – a strong pace to aim at so he can be delivered a little later. A grade 1 winner over the trip and back at a track that plays to his strengths, I think he’s the one to be on.

Recommended Bet

Back Thyme Hill @ 5/1 (9/2 NRNB)

County Hurdle

I’ve been keeping a close eye on the Greatwood Hurdle form with regards to the County Hurdle this season, as that aforementioned race gets better and better by the week. The fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth have all franked the form in great style. No Ordinary Joe is the only one of the top four to have run since, and disappointingly so when he was pulled up at Ascot. But they went way too fast that day and he disputed a frantic pace. Despite that, I think he’s the one to be on in the County Hurdle.

He won a couple of novice hurdles over two and a half miles before dropping back down in trip. The way he races (very enthusiastically), that looks to have been a good move. He was in the firing line the whole way in the Greatwood and was again a bit too keen, but the fact he finished third shows the ability he has. A mark of 136 underestimates his ability by some way, but he has to settle. They usually go a relentless pace in the County Hurdle given the number of runners, and that’ll help No Ordinary Joe massively.

Recommended Bet

Back No Ordinary Joe @ 16/1 Each Way (NRNB)

Gold Cup

Based on his Betfair Chase run, A Plus Tard could be a clearer favourite than he currently is for the Gold Cup to go one place better than last year. But in truth that Haydock race fell apart and A Plus Tard couldn’t back it up at Leopardstown when just losing out to Galvin. There’s barely anything between them on that evidence and the dynamic of the Gold Cup suits the latter better than the former. A Plus Tard has failed to convert twice on the new course at Cheltenham and I’m not convinced he will rectify that this year. Galvin is clearly good, and I think the Gold Cup will suit him, but I think he’s more than likely booked for a place.

I keep coming back round to Minella Indo. He did it for me last year and I think it’s set up for him again. Cheltenham makes him come alive, so I’m not too concerned about his previous efforts this season. The slog of the Gold Cup is perfect for him, and I think there was enough encouragement at Leopardstown last time, considering it was likely used to get him A1 for Cheltenham and it wasn’t a particularly strong stamina test. Everything just clicks for him at Cheltenham, so I can see a repeat of last year.

I’m also having a saver on one at a big price. I think this is far from a vintage Gold Cup and it wouldn’t take many of these to underperform by a small amount to open the door even wider than it already is. Fiddlerontheroof is worth a chance. He’s so consistent and is yet to really fulfil his potential as a stayer, with the longest trip he’s faced coming in the Ladbrokes Trophy when we last saw him, where he produced a career-best on RPR’s. He’s a sound jumper, will appreciate the test and you know what you’re going to get from him. If things fall apart, he’s extremely well-equipped to pick up the pieces.

Recommended Bets

Back Minella Indo @ 11/2 (5/1 NRNB)

Back Fiddlerontheroof @ 40/1 Each Way (25/1 NRNB)

Alex Peperell

www.thepeptalk.co.uk

Featured Image: Carine06 from UK, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons