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We had one come in this week…
I have been reading the OnCourseProfits mag and really enjoyed the stats angles..etc… … I have noticed that a lot of horses seem to pop up and win at huge double figure prices most notably when significantly upped in trip and making their handicap debut.
If a horse has had say 3 runs at 1m, 1m2f and then is upped to 1m6f for their handicap debut they tend to run extremely well…
I have passed this to Dave Renham for research and we will publish his findings in a future issue.
But straight off the bat I had a look myself.
So if you just backed all horses on their handicap debut, who have no runs at today's distance you would have made a profit over the last 5 years, with a 10% ROI at Betfair SP.
But but but, last year was a 20% loss and so far this year we have a 6% loss.
To the specific question of 3 runs at 1 mile or 1 mile 2 furlongs and then 1 mile 6 on debut.
I get a 20% ROI over the last 5 years, but less than 10 qualifiers a year and '24 and '25 had no wins!
Lets see if I can find something worthwhile.
I'm looking for positives in the 2020 to 2024 data and then testing out my criteria on this year to see if it holds up.
There's only about 100 handicaps each year on the turf at 1 mile 6 f.
If I look at All Weather my original query of handicap debut, no runs at distance gives me a 49% ROI, but no wins in 2024 or this year.
There's about 50 All Weather races at 1 mile 6.
I'm going to stick with the turf and look at all distances.
So if I select the distances that have been profitable in the past, I get profit for races over 5 furlongs to 7.5 furlong, 1 mile is a big loser and profit again at 1m2f to 1m 5.5f.
That's handicaps, today's distance one of the above, horse having first run in handicap having never run at the distance before.
If I look at this year for those criteria I do get a profit of 16 points, but it's from 678 bets so far and the ROI is just 2.47.
So next I ditched distance and looked at trainers who have won with the same criteria.
I looked for at least 10 qualifiers over the 5 years and at a least a 20% strike rate.
This gave me a list of 20 trainers and a 64% ROI from 2020 to 2024.
Checking those rules against this year so far gave me 22 wins from 98 races and an ROI at Betfair SP of 19.85%.
This might be a strategy that the market accounts for and hence the slim pickings, but saying that I'm confident that Dave will do a more thorough job and will find us something worthwhile.
On the plus side, we have researched on past data and still have a profit on this years data, avoiding the backfitting trap, maybe we have something with the select list of trainers.
Here's the screenshot of the trainers I added…
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Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
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