Must Work Harder
Although I always try my best to keep things nice and simple (for my sake as much as yours), sometimes I will need to give you a bit more work to do – and this month is one of those rare occasions!
Although I have been in the racing game for over 40 years now, if I told you I watched every race I would be a liar – the time isn’t there, and neither is the enthusiasm – watching a Class 6 all-weather handicap at 8.40pm on a Wednesday evening is not for me, I am sorry to say (well, not every day anyway).
What we all have is access to is the race reports kindly submitted by the likes of The Racing Post, Sporting Life, Proform, Timeform and many others after the race – too late to get a bet on of course, but interesting nonetheless, but can we find a way to use that to our advantage – that was my challenge this month – and more importantly, can we use it to turn a decent profit?
The theory:
I have decided to go looking for certain racing terminology in the hope that leads us in the right direction – if a horse won “easily” last time out in the race summary, how often does he or she then follow up? What about “hampered”, or “stayed on”? That sent me scurrying off to see if we can use them to our advantage – be that as a backing system or a laying system if necessary.
Data used: 1st January 2011 to 28th June 2025 inclusive, profits listed to BSP (Betfair Starting Price) assume a standard 2% commission.
Hampered All Races
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 33469 | 3684 | 11.01% | +£2527.41 | -£6600.17 | 4 | 66 |
Summary: A good profit figure but from an awful lot of bets and a Return On Investment of just 7.55% – and look at the horror show of a losing run of 66!
Next, we break that down further:
Hampered Flat Turf
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 9955 | 1137 | 11.42% | +£3158.53 | -£3572.15 | 4 | 64 |
Summary: That’s a bit better (perhaps surprisingly). A 31.73% Return On Investment is not to be sniffed at, but the losing run of 64 is still a major concern.
Hampered Flat All-Weather
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 5791 | 632 | 10.91% | -£461.55 | -£1465.41 | 4 | 57 |
Summary: There is a small profit of +£265.46 using this as a laying option but my advice is to ignore the all-weather! No idea why, but I deal with facts, and the figures speak for themselves.
Hampered Hurdles
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 9892 | 1001 | 10.12% | +£246.67 | -£2369.69 | 3 | 79 |
Summary: I will not insult your intelligence – with a Return On Investment of 2.5% I suggest hurdles are the second option after all-weather to simply ignore.
Hampered Chases
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 7393 | 866 | 11.71% | -£541.95 | -£1730.71 | 4 | 55 |
Summary: A profit of £299.12 for those who fancy laying them, but not for me.
Hampered bumpers
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 438 | 48 | 10.96% | +£125.61 | -£78.95 | 3 | 66 |
Summary: apart from the losing run issue that continues to crop up, we had a sensible number of bets and a Return On Investment of 28.67% making Bumpers races to at least consider.
Next stop, any horse recorded as winning “easily”
Easily all races
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 1157 | 3084 | 9.54% | +£9.54 | -£1365.336 | 6 | 23 |
Summary: Not a great shock to find that horses who won easily last time out are potentially overbet, but lesson learned in the hunt for value!
Easily Flat Turf
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 2889 | 663 | 22.95% | -£53.62 | -£394.70 | 5 | 28 |
Summary: that surprised me but again, my suggestion would be that they are overbet.
Easily Flat All-Weather
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 996 | 305 | 30.62% | -£20.26 | -£109.32 | 6 | 20 |
Summary: see above, overbet once more
Easily Hurdles
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 4454 | 1237 | 27.77% | -£54.45 | -£626.78 | 5 | 27 |
Summary: a small profit of +£66.49 to those who like to lay, but nothing worth mentioning for the rest of us.
Easily Chases
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 2698 | 742 | 27.50% | +£56.89 | -£242.38 | 7 | 26 |
Summary: A Return On Investment of 2.11% is nothing to brag about itself, but a decent strike rate of better than one in four suggests chasers who won easily last time out are worth additional consideration.
Easily Bumpers
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 490 | 137 | 27.96% | +£80.97 | +£7.86 | 4 | 12 |
Summary: the best of a bad bunch. A one in four strike rate, and a Return On Investment of 16.52% suggest bumpers may be the best way forward with this particular option.
And lasty, I have gone for the word “strongly” – they might have won strongly or finished strongly, but that seems worth a look!
Strongly All Races
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 31215 | 5870 | 18.81% | +£210.88 | -£4605.47 | 5 | 51 |
Summary: A good strike rate to my surprise and although the profit is slim, it is something worth considering.
Strongly Turf Flat
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 13198 | 2309 | 17.50% | -£116.91 | -£2226.93 | 5 | 53 |
Summary: A shocker but we can turn it around by laying horses whose comments include “strongly” to turn a profit of +£294.88 so not all bad.
Strongly All-Weather
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 5215 | 1044 | 20.02% | +£588.24 | -£295.28 | 5 | 38 |
Summary: With an 11.28% Return On Investment this isn’t too bad and suggests that a second look at horses who qualify can help you make better decisions.
Strongly Hurdles
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 7294 | 1427 | 19.56% | -£128.52 | -£1264.08 | 6 | 34 |
Summary: A small profit if you lay them of £93.88 but nothing to write home about
Strongly Chases
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 4543 | 914 | 20.12% | +£38.09 | -£548.14 | 5 | 37 |
Summary: A good enough strike rate but nothing more.
Strongly Bumpers
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 964 | 176 | 18.26% | -£170.02 | -£271.05 | 5 | 24 |
Summary: Our final set of disappointing figures but at least we know NOT to back qualifying horses in bumpers.
Conclusions:
A lot of work for very little reward in this case, but plenty learned by myself and hopefully by you too? The evidence is there for all to see – acceptable strike rates of 10% and above but the cold facts are that most of these horses simply have to be overbet, I can think of no other explanation. Personally, I will now think twice before blindly backing horses who won easily or finished strongly (as two examples) and will potentially look to oppose them with something else in the race instead, probably at much better value!
Sean Trivass is well-known freelance journalist who specialises in horse racing. His books can be found on Amazon here https://tinyurl.com/59t4dr7e while his weekly blog is updated Friday evening on his website at www.writesports.net. Any ideas for future articles – contact Sean via his website and he will investigate further!
