Race horses running on green turf in the summer

Trainers To Provide Profits in August

Four trainers who excel with their 3yo’s in handicap company in the August and September period.

Digging into trainer stats is a daily occurrence for myself and 3-year-olds in handicaps is a particular area I like to take a bit of a deep dive into. Indeed, this article could be viewed as a bit of an extension to my article in the June issue of On Course Profits.

In that month’s issue I covered races restricted to three-year-olds and highlighted five trainers worth following in such races. I’m delighted to say those angles have, so far, shown some decent returns as a group... Grant Tuer being the star of the show to date and Andrew Balding the one that needs to start pulling his weight a bit more (still time for Balding to get things rolling yet though).

In this month’s article I’m sticking with the 3-year-olds but instead of looking at only those races restricted to their own age group, I’m opening up the race range and considering ALL handicaps that three-year-old are eligible for.

The main filter used this time will be the monthly filter as I’ll only be concentrating on the months of August and September.

What follows in this report are five trainers that the stats are telling us are experts at finding winning (and profitable) openings for the three-year-old handicappers within their ranks, in the late summer/early autumn period of the season.

Like my June report I’m keeping things relatively recent and only using data from between the years of 2018 to the present day (so the last six full seasons).

Training methods and mindsets can and do change over time, so I feel it’s best to keep things as recent as possible with these approaches, whilst at the same time giving a strong enough data-set to work with to allow us to draw accurate conclusions from.

I’ll start with the trainer who sits at the top of the three-year-old handicapper pile on pure winners (in August to September) ...

William Haggas

Overall record since 2018 in Handicaps with three-year-olds (August to September)

80/338 | 24% S/R | -£9.60 BFLSP – W&P 150/338 | 44% S/R

6% below market expectation

A small loss if backing all of the William Haggas three-year-olds in handicaps at this stage of the season, although ultimately those are still some solid stats on offer and an excellent starting point to start some data drilling from....

A couple of simple filters move the stats into profit...

First up I want to drop any of the William Haggas three-year-old handicappers running off a break of 31-days or more... so those coming off a break of roughly a month or more.

Removing those without some recent racecourse fitness in their legs instantly puts the overall figures in profit and also tightens up the strike-rates...

58/210 | 28% S/R | +£28.03 BFLSP – W&P 98/210 | 47% S/R

7% above market expectation

I also want to remove the Haggas handicappers that run on the ALL-WEATHER.

Again, they have not proven to be profitable at this period of the season and it’s more beneficial for us to concentrate on those running on turf only...

50/171 | 29% S/R | +£36.81 BFLSP – W&P 79/171 | 46% S/R

15% above market expectation

The last screw I want to tighten up looks at the Starting Prices (SP) of the William Haggas three-year-olds.

If we concentrate on those that start at single-figures, and specifically an SP of less than 8/1, then we get a solid angle to go to war with...

Horseracebase criteria for System number 117-21 William Haggas.

System JO-117-21-08-24-BA: William Haggas | Three-year-olds in Turf Handicaps | August & September | DSLR 30 or less | SP less than 8/1

50/150 | 33% S/R | +£57.81 BFLSP – W&P 76/150 | 51% S/R

19% above market expectation

Next on the list is a Yorkshire based trainer that likes to throw a large number of three-year-olds into handicap company in the August and September period...

The rest of this article is for Platinum members.

You've just seen what our experts do with publicly available data — the Platinum section is where the specific angles, numbers and actionable conclusions live.

Platinum members also get daily system selections in their inbox by 2am, tips from top tipsters, Win Big Golf selections, and access to 11 years of magazine archives.

Already a member? Log in here

Upgrade to Platinum — £29.99/month, cancel anytime

I am the founder and driving force behind Narrowing The Field (www.narrowingthefield.co.uk), a racing analysis service which is now in its sixteenth season. I combine in depth stats analysis with exhaustive race, trainer and horse notes, with a focus on bespoke race-trend analysis, delving deep into the data to source the likely winners and value outsiders of all the major flat and jumps races. I publish free, in-depth blog posts as well as a private members’ service that delivers stats sheets, Prime Condition alerts, and alternative angles designed to give punters an edge under both racing codes. My analysis blends hands‑on data mining, long-form analysis, and exhaustive note taking, all aimed at turning disciplined research into consistent profit for followers and members.

Away from racing I enjoy Boxing (both watching and to keep fit), playing guitar and adopting retired greyhounds (currently on number 7!).

Related posts