Quick out the blocks – Flat Trainers to Follow in April.

Just as the Cheltenham Festival is over for another year and we look forward to the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals, the flat season kicks in with the Lincoln meeting in late March / early April.

The onset of the flat season adds a certain spice to proceedings in April as we look forward to the Grand National and the curtain call in the jumps season.

Whilst the end of the flat season and the start of the jumps season is a tricky time for punters, it does not quite work the other way around. Most likely because there are still some top-class meetings over obstacles and the national hunt season goes out with a bang rather than a whimper unlike the flat season.

It can be rewarding to know which flat trainers will have their string fit and ready to rumble in April and whose runners tend to need an outing or two.

I have looked at the performance of flat trainers in the month of April from 2012 to 2018 to see who we should be noting, and under which conditions their runners are most likely to strike.

Without further ado let’s see what I have uncovered:

Richard Fahey

The main man for April is Richard Fahey.

He likes to target the Lincoln meeting and he usually has them ready and able first time up.

Since 2012 he has sent out 700 runners in April and 116 have won at a win strike rate of 17% and a level stakes profit of £119.16 at Betfair SP.

The ROI is a very good 17% but that can be improved upon if we dig a little deeper.

The first thing we can do is strike a line through the Class 1 and Class 2 races. These have a combined record of 14-170 and post a loss of around £28 on the exchanges. If we concentrate on the Class 3, 4, 5 and 6 races to begin with, then the overall April figures improve to give the following set of results:

The strike rate is now nudging up to 20% and the ROI is up to around 30%. The overall P/L is up also. From here there are a number of potential angles.

First, the 2yo runners in April in class 3 to class 6 races have a 24% strike rate and realise a tasty profit of £39.63 at Betfair SP. That is one angle worth considering as it simplifies which type of Fahey runner to concentrate on. He has a huge yard and runs them often, so sticking to the 2yo runners really will simplify the whole selection process.

However, we can improve on those figures again if we look at the performance in the different race classes:

Those racing in Class 3 and 4 races have a combined record of 2-25, whereas those racing in Class 5 and 6 have a combined record of 18-58 and post a combined profit of £52.77 at Betfair SP.

Another potential angle is to strike a line through the handicap races and concentrate on the non-handicap races only.

The results below are for the Fahey April runners in non-handicap races:

Again, we should concentrate on Class 5 and 6 races as these have been responsible for no fewer than 35 of the 47 winners.

I think it is safe to say we could leave that one there and the results will also include the 18 juvenile winners we identified earlier.

A word of caution though as this angle only had one winner from 12 runners last April, but that is most likely a blip as it was well down on all his previous years and normal service should be resumed this year.

System: Richard Fahey runners in class 5 and 6 non-handicap races in April.

Mick Easterby

A lot of the trainers who are hot in April are those that do well in non-handicap races. I know there are plenty of people out there who only bet in handicaps (I must admit I prefer these races as a betting medium).

I can tell you that Mick Easterby has a decent record with his handicap runners in April, notching up 29 winners between them in the last 7 years.

All of the winners were aged 3yo to 7yo so best to give the older horses the swerve. Since 2012, all years have been winning ones with the exception of 2014 so there is plenty of substance to the results.

All the winners came over distances of 1m 4f or shorter.

You can see from the results above that you would have done pretty well backing all his 3yo to 7yo runners in 5f to 1m 4f races blind, but that is not something we normally recommend.

However, when you break down the results you find that winners have come in sprints, mile and middle distance races, any type of age restrictions and all the age groups from 3yo to 7yo produce a profit.

Winners have come at all prices too, from short priced favourites to a couple at fancy prices and everything in between. The age restrictions in handicaps does not seem to make much difference with winners in 3yo+, 3yo only and 4yo+ races.

We can eke out a bit more profit if we look at where those winners did their winning. All bar 4 winners came at Yorkshire tracks.

He has had 3 winners on the old turf track at Newcastle but that is now an AW course so we can remove those from the results.

His runners are 1-8 in Scotland and 1-15 elsewhere so we will ditch those too.

That now leaves a record of 24-106 at Yorkshire tracks.

One track where he does not have much success is Doncaster.

His April runners aged 3yo to 7yo in races up to 1m 4f have a record of 1-16.

That winner did go in at 16/1 but we will drop Doncaster from the list and concentrate on those others where he has a much healthier strike rate.

That leaves Beverley, Catterick, Pontefract, Redcar, Ripon, Thirsk and Wetherby.

Together those runners have racked up the following results since 2012:

Not a bad set of results by any stretch of the imagination.

System: Mick Easterby runners aged 3yo to 7yo in 5f to 1m 4f handicap races in April at Beverley, Catterick, Pontefract, Redcar, Ripon, Thirsk and Wetherby.

Stuart Kittow

Sticking with the handicaps and this time a very selective trainer in Stuart Kittow.

Whereas Mick Easterby and Richard Fahey will be running plenty in April, Stuart Kittow will send out anything between 2 and 10 runners. But watch out when he does. His record is as follows:

That strike rate is mightily impressive and he has sent out at least one winner in April every year since 2012. Each year has seen a profit too.

14 of the 15 winners have come in Class 3, 4 and 5 races from 38 runners which boosts the strike rate.

Furthermore, 13 of those 14 winners were aged 3yo to 6yo and that was from a subset of just 28 runners.

Normally when you see results like that, a stable has two or three multiple winners who are the leading lights in the yard but of those 13 Stuart Kittow winners, only one of them scored more than once in April.

So, that leaves us with a tidy little angle for one of the lesser known stables:

System: Stuart Kittow runners aged 3yo to 6yo in class 3, 4 and 5 handicap races in April.

David O’Meara

Well renowned for working miracles with cast-offs from other yards, David O’Meara is also adept at getting his string fit and ready to rumble in the opening month of the flat season.

Again, we are going to stick to the handicaps and his record since 2012 reads as follows:

That strike rate may seem a bit on the low side, but I can tell you those runners have made a profit in each of the years since 2012.

However, as always, we will try and improve on those numbers to try and make his runners a more palatable betting proposition.

All 42 winners came in races from 5f to 1m 4f and those racing over further have yet to strike in April (0-12). He actually does better in the better class races.

Those racing in Class 5 and 6 have combined for 11 winners but just about break even at Betfair SP so we can ditch those and that should improve the ROI.

That leaves 31 winners and, interestingly, 30 of those have come in 4yo+ handicaps.

Given how well he does with horses from other yards, that statistic is not surprising at all given they need a season or two to underperform before being shipped out to O’Meara who, time and time again, somehow makes them into winners.

So now we are looking at the following set of results for the O’Meara runners in Class 2, 3 and 4 handicaps for 4yo and older horses in races up to, and including, 1m 4f.

We can tighten up those impressive figures again if we ditch those over 7yo. Those older are 1-21 are not worth pursuing.

Those simple filters have taken the ROI from 38% to over 100%. The strike rate is up to 20% and that is one winner every five runners. We can squeeze a bit more out if we stick to those sent off between 6/4 20/1 or shorter as they account for all of those 29 winners.

I am quite happy to leave it there for now as David O’Meara is a trainer I have a lot of respect for and I am always interested in his runners, especially at the start of the season.

System: David O’Meara runners aged 4yo to 7yo in class 2, 3 and 4 handicaps for horses aged 4yo+ racing over 5f to 1m 4f and sent off between 6/4 and 20/1 in April.

For our Gold members Nick takes a closer look at three well known trainers who hit the ground running at the start of the flat turf season and finds the angles we need to profit from them

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