Pens From FormHorse Select
Hi everyone, Paul of FormHorse Select here again, continuing my series of articles for On Course Profits.
When To Bet
As I said before, this is a general overview of how I operate. What I am looking for. The kind of races I am looking to bet in. Plenty of it may seem obvious but it is worth repeating. Even after writing the first article in this series, it got me thinking again about my current punting and possible ways I may have slipped a bit and can improve upon. There is always room to improve or learn something at any time.
First up I like to keep things generally as obvious as possible. I used to try and dig bets out and try and find something clever that no one else could find but now most of my bets are on bang in form horses with not too much to prove under the race conditions on the day. Value seekers will disagree with me and that’s fine if it is the how you want to go about it. There is no right or wrong way after all. It all depends on what kind of losing run you are prepared to take.
Personally, I don’t want any big losing runs at all these days. Plenty of winners and a high strike rate is what I am looking for. That is why I use the place market combined with favourites. It can also be done betting mid-range each way prices, i.e. 7/2 to 10/1 if you can maintain a high place strike rate. Somewhere in the 50% region will do it, while you wait for the winners to land. This is kind of how I used to operate but it is not so easy without bookmaker accounts. At least not the way I was doing it back then. Again, it can still be done but the need to change thinking and adapt to make it work.
Back to how I operate now.
As I have said before, I am looking for weak races in general. Races where many can be ruled out leaving not many realistic contenders. If there are 3 or more horses with good chances, difficult to split, then it is probably too competitive for a bet for me. There is no easy way to narrow the field down unfortunately.
Ideally, all runners in the race need to be looked at. Some obviously more time spent on than others. That is not to say on paper a race might look tough, but when you start to look at it you realise there are not many with a realistic chance and a bet could be possible. Races where there are not too many unexposed runners, and the opposition can be assessed with some degree of confidence are what I am looking for.
Again though, how I look at it is going to be different from someone else, such is the interpretation needed. I like to see strong form lines preferably. Horses coming into the race in good form and horses performing well out of that race, preferably winning form. There are of course exceptions where my own judgement would come into it more.
Let’s face it, most day to day racing is low grade, so these kinds of form lines are not so obvious.
Handicaps
There are a fair few factors that can be used to narrow a race down to the main contenders. Also, for different race types, different factors become more relevant. Handicaps, for example, handicap marks are the main focus. Basically, I am looking for the best handicapped horse under today’s conditions.
Now the ideal scenario is when we have a horse that is obviously ahead of their handicap mark against badly handicapped opposition. This also goes back to something I have mentioned before and that is watching race replays. This is the best way to judge if a horse can defy a rise in the weights. There is historical form but using our eyes is the best guide. It is not foolproof, however, and is of course subjective. Also, horses improve at different rates in general and depending on age, adding more elements of guesswork. We need to know about lbs per length over all distances as well.
By that I mean changing the poundage into the lengths particularly for winning form. So, say 7 lengths over 2 miles is roughly 7lb being 1lb per length over this distance. For 5f and 6f races it is around 3lb per length. And in between distances it is 2lb to 1.2lb roughly. Something else to consider is weight can be carried easier over shorter distances, making penalties easier to defy.
Now after all that we still need to factor in how easily or not a horse has won, judged on what we see. Sometimes a horse may only win ½ a length say but was eased down or was racing wide from a bad draw finishing strongly to get up late. This is another good way to find winners. Horses that run well from bad draws. Not necessarily winning but running well.
These performances can be marked up. Look out for these types against your selection as well as they are not immediately obvious but can catch you out.
Now some horses just aren’t up to defying a rise in the weights no matter how good they looked last time out. They may be more exposed and have reached their handicap ceiling. A mark they just can’t win above. It may have been a poor race, or they had the perfect setup and run of the race on the day making the run look better than it was to the eye. A check of the formbook will expose these types. A change in ground, distance or track can also be negative. Not always but I am always cautious and try to get as many form factors lined up as possible.
Horses that are turned out quickly before the revised mark kicks in are always worth looking at as they are often well in with a mandatory penalty. Also, winners of conditional and apprentice handicaps don’t get a penalty so remain on the same mark making their claims obvious next time out. Again though, not all of these win for various reasons, and it is easy to get caught out if you try and back them all. The other issue is price.
Generally, these types are short in the betting, making it harder to turn a profit than it used to be. Also look out for horses coming down in the weights.
When they are towards the head of the betting market or being backed, they need to be noted, possibly returning to a winning mark. Horses that have previously won off higher marks than their current mark, as we know they are capable of the required form, add weight to any selection.
Place and Each Way Betting
I thought I would finish with my thoughts and reasoning on place betting (I.E., 1pt win/2pt place bets) particularly, as it has become quite a contentious issue regarding my service. The first thing to say is all of the shorter BFPSP’s have all been backed in as I don’t send any place advice below 1.3 available at the time of sending and generally much higher, as really, I don’t like to be below 1.35.
That is either with an online bookmaker or the exchange. Unfortunately, they can go either way and many have been backed in. I am looking to address this issue going forward, which will cut out the majority of the big shorteners hopefully. Possibly by betting in a different way and by focusing more on win only bets.
However, there is still a place for some of these bets under the right circumstances, hopefully at better place odds.
Also, as I told my subscribers in a post, if I had backed all to place only with 3pts, there would be a +34pt swing over the 6 months to BFPSP which does show they are profitable overall. I use the place cover in a tactical way.
There is always a logical reason behind the thinking. You still think you will win but there is more of an element of risk overall. Maybe a live danger or a bigger field where a turnup could happen. At worst I am fully expecting the horse to place barring accidents, giving in effect a free bet at the win or some overall profit from the place.
I understand this is a different style most are not used to or have seen before or even considered. I have years of experience betting like this but obviously not at BFPSP!
Now if we go back to when I first started out full time, as I said before, I was betting almost everything each way. This was before exchanges came along. I started to get interested in the math’s side of things and it soon became apparent that in certain races the place odds were out of line due to the win odds price. The chances of a place were far higher than the odds the bookmaker had to use in correlation to the win.
Odds on favs in 8 or 9 runner non handicaps when the betting was say 8/11, 5/2, 5/1 10/1 bar could be taken on with an each way bet on the 2nd or 3rd in against the fav, virtually ensuring at worst a place with careful selection, while you wait for winners to land.
Now I am probably not telling many of you something you don’t know about, snide each way bets like this. Account closers of the highest order to be sure!
What is interesting is the math’s on the shorter prices, which will show that we should not be afraid to bet each way or place only at shorter odds. Take the 5/2 shot in the above example. Let’s say everything lines up form wise and there is a live chance to get the favourite beat. In that scenario, it is virtually certain to finish in the first 3 for a place at worst.
So, let’s say we have £100 each way at 5/2 with our bookmaker at 1/5 the odds. If he wins, we will collect £300 profit, places we will lose £50, the return being £150. We are now in effect risking £50 to win £300. Changing the odds to 6/1.
The other way to look at it is if we really fancy it to win, we can have £100 win at 5/2 to win £250. Now because we know it is a certain place at least, we can now risk the same £100 by having £200 each way at 5/2. Now when it wins, we will collect £600 profit for the same risk of £100 for the place. Of course it doesn’t have to be against a strong favourite. These kinds of scenarios can pop up to the shrewd backer on better examples than I have given there. Even on a 5/2 favourite itself.
One of the most expensive and successful (if you could get their odds) tipping services in the UK operates their mainline bets almost exclusively in this way. Or at least used to years ago and I think they are still going today.
Clearly translating all that to the exchange place market is problematic because they are in theory the true odds being a separate market from the win. However, there can still be opportunities to take advantage, particularly if you can still bet with the bookmakers, even on their own markets which are always worth looking at. So, there you have my thinking on the math’s behind place and each way betting!
Paul Slattery
