If only betting was like predicting the weather…
Forecasting is a tricky business at the best of times.
They say that if you were to simply guess the weather for the next day you’d be right 50% of the time. Not a bad strike rate eh? Maybe that’s what they do? Or just cover all angles in their summary so they get it 100% right. Now that is a good strike rate!
Taking this into the betting environment it is of course impossible to cover all possible outcomes and make a profit unless you’re using the Arbitrage route.
I’m sure that even if you were to choose at random a selection in a market with just ‘2’ possible outcomes you would be right 50% of the time the longer you do it.
Unfortunately, it’s the prices on offer and exchange commissions that prevent us from profiting by betting blind! Damn – There’s me thinking this game is easy!
To gain our edge in efficient markets we can deploy some appropriate staking plans and use that as our weapon if looking for a simple priced based strategy. Preferably one that offers some slight but sensible increase in stakes after a losing outcome.
I do stress the word ‘sensible’ here and not martingale staking or any of that nonsense.
The staking also has to be strictly based on the strategies historical win/lose pattern that should be analysed using reliable and well recorded historical data. Without any accurate data collection we are simply peeing in the wind when it comes to apportioning an appropriate staking plan, Put simply, we have to stake the odds firmly in our favour from the get go before embarking on our mission.
The strategy itself also must be able to obtain a slight edge at level stakes before considering any form of loss recovery. A good staking plan will not miraculously turn a losing system into a winning one, and if attempting to do so then you are really putting your financial neck on the line.
A well thought out staking plan however can improve on level stake gains and also give a comfort feel when you see regular returns going back into your overall pot as a result of recouping some of the previous losses.
One such method that uses gradual stake recovery is my ‘Stake Small Win Big’ football method where we look at ways to take advantage of key in-play stats that surprisingly many overlook which does amaze me when the object is to make money and anything that can help that cause surely has to be used?
It’s a method where more often than not we can cover our small liability and then BANG we can hit on a nice win! Like the one below sent in by a member of my Quick-fire Betting Profit course;
Drifters and Steamers – What do they tell you?
I just want to touch on market drifters and what to make of a ‘drift’ in terms of whether they should be avoided?
There is a saying in regards to live betting shows in that ‘the market gets it wrong more than it gets it right’. This is certainly the case when observing traditional bookmakers live shows. However Betfair is certainly a different beast.
My rule of thumb is what happens on Betfair needs to be taken notice of as the prices offered close to the off are the most accurate barometer of the horses likely performance in terms of its chances of winning or losing. This is a result of all the subsequent pieces of info from all the differing sources manifesting into a settled and stable price just before the race off time.
A price drift is no problem in a horse race so long as it’s not an alarming drift. You will often see a doubling in price on some selections within a short time frame and this is most worrying, especially when it’s near the top end of the betting market and if it’s one of the early favoured runners.
Many mistakenly ‘back’ these thinking they now offer great value, not so me! I would not touch them with a barge pole. Obviously word has got around that something is not right with the horse to trigger this sudden and alarming drift. Those that have gradual drifts are fine by 1-3 betting points, as maybe they are just having a ‘bounce back’ after having been backed heavily early doors to a point of being extremely poor value. This has then been picked up in the market and has drifted slightly to its ‘true’ value price.
On the flip side, steamers and ones that suddenly price crash are also ones to avoid and you are going to need a very high win strike rate to make these pay especially with Betfair commission factored in.
Following steamers by very definition means you will have missed the boat by the time the ‘Steamer’ comes onto your radar.
A better angle for steamers is to make a note of those that have steamed from early market indicator sites such as the AT THE RACES steamer/drifter section, then look to see if they drift later on and have a small bet on them when they have bounced back to the price they originally opened at before the price crash took place.
So long as they don’t drift too much over the pre steamer price as you don’t want them to turn into a market negative.
I have tried this a few times and have turned a nice profit backing each-way over 2 dozen data samples. A very short sample I know, but certainly worth investigating further I feel?
Speak Soon!
Andrew David
